NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	4.8 [870]		MVP	James Posey (MIA): +11.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	77		Comeback	1.0 [844]		LVP	Mike James (MIN): -15.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.01	13	55%	0.11	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Eddie Jones	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	17	53%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.09	-0.01	0.06	12	73%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Dorell Wright	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	15	50%	0.08	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	7	36%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	10	48%	0.02	5	-0.11	11	27%	-0.06

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	15	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Mark Madsen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	9	50%	0.07	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	15	31%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	8	22%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.02	-0.02	0.09	16	61%	0.00	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Rashad McCants	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.02	8	28%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	29.2	15.6	25.2	2.4	31.5	129.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +52.6%

MIN -1.6%

MIA +1.4%

MIN -6.6%

MIA +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	16.6	13.7	15.4	96.8	81.1	104.5
season	16.0	15.4		102.4	101.9
opponent	15.6	15.6		105.8	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.0	16.7	18.3	17.5	16.6
MIN	15.4	14.0	12.4	13.1	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	93	93	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.04	17	-2	19	16.5	20.5	-3.99	13.7	15.0	-1.30
James Posey	80	79	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.02	15	0	15	16.5	17.2	-0.72	13.9	12.6	1.32
Shaquille O'Neal	72	73	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.07	10	5	5	16.7	16.3	0.38	14.1	12.6	1.48
Jason Williams	63	64	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.09	13	2	11	15.9	18.0	-2.08	13.7	13.8	-0.17
Eddie Jones	71	71	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.01	8	7	1	17.2	14.8	2.35	13.4	14.7	-1.26
Chris Quinn	35	33	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.09	4	11	-7	18.1	15.7	2.32	13.5	13.8	-0.32
Antoine Walker	38	38	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	12	-9	16.6	16.6	-0.06	13.8	13.7	0.11
Alonzo Mourning	20	20	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.05	3	12	-9	15.9	16.8	-0.87	13.0	13.9	-0.92
Dorell Wright	3	4	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.01	2	13	-11	8.7	16.8	-8.18	15.0	13.7	1.33

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	73	74	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.17	3	-18	21	13.6	14.0	-0.42	16.9	15.6	1.31
Mike James	39	39	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-11	7	13.8	13.7	0.07	16.0	17.0	-0.96
Marko Jaric	72	72	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.21	3	-18	21	13.7	13.9	-0.25	16.9	15.6	1.29
Rashad McCants	27	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.13	0	-15	15	13.9	13.7	0.23	19.2	15.5	3.72
Mark Madsen	19	19	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	-9	3	15.6	13.2	2.38	17.6	16.3	1.30
Trenton Hassell	18	18	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.12	-11	-4	-7	14.8	13.5	1.37	14.0	17.2	-3.19
Craig Smith	29	29	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.01	-9	-6	-3	13.2	13.9	-0.70	17.2	16.3	0.89
Randy Foye	56	56	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	-4	-7	13.7	13.8	-0.07	17.0	16.0	0.96
Mark Blount	69	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.04	-18	3	-21	13.5	14.3	-0.80	15.7	18.8	-3.06
Ricky Davis	73	72	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	0.09	-22	7	-29	13.5	14.6	-1.18	15.9	18.7	-2.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.18,0.23,0.26,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 94, HOU 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.22,0.36,0.27,0.18,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	96.2%
NJN 113, GSW 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.28,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.15,0.25,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
OKC 111, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%