NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	86		Excitement	7.1 [431]		MVP	Mehmet Okur (UTA): +13.3%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	19.4 [67]		LVP	Deron Williams (UTA): -15.6%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mehmet Okur	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.28,0.13	0.07	0.07	0.00	12	59%	0.19	1	-0.05	8	62%	-0.01
Jarron Collins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	44%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	42%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gordan Giricek	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.06	-0.05	0.01	7	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	11%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Matt Harpring	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.1	-0.02	-0.11	-0.03	10	46%	0.08	1	-0.18	6	67%	-0.01
Carlos Boozer	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.15	-0.03	-0.13	-0.01	14	50%	-0.07	3	-0.08	12	67%	-0.06
Deron Williams	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	-0.01	12	58%	-0.03	5	-0.12	2	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.13	0.13	0.01	0.14	0.03	11	48%	0.13	0	0.00	3	67%	0.06
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.00	9	68%	0.11	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.08	-0.00	6	33%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.03	0.03	-0.08	0.09	-0.02	17	38%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	12	46%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	7	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	48%	0.02	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.03
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.05	-0.12	0.01	7	64%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	0.8	24.4	14.8	29.3	2.6	34.1	134.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +18.6%

MIA +5.8%

MIA +6.3%

MIA +18.5%

MIA +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIA	NBA	UTA	MIA	NBA
this game	16.4	16.9	15.4	98.9	102.3	104.5
season	15.9	16.0		107.4	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.0		104.3	104.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	13.7	20.5	14.8	17.8	16.4
MIA	18.4	19.5	14.0	16.5	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarron Collins	21	21	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.01	6	-8	14	17.1	16.2	0.98	16.1	17.2	-1.06
Derek Fisher	49	48	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.25	12	-14	26	14.0	19.5	-5.45	15.7	18.3	-2.59
Andrei Kirilenko	33	32	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-2	2	15.3	17.1	-1.82	15.4	17.8	-2.37
Paul Millsap	14	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.17	-9	7	-16	24.5	14.8	9.65	17.1	16.9	0.21
Gordan Giricek	55	56	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-1	0	17.9	13.9	4.00	17.8	15.2	2.60
Carlos Boozer	73	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.61	7	-9	16	14.8	24.5	-9.65	16.9	17.1	-0.21
Matt Harpring	54	54	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.41	-2	0	-2	17.1	15.3	1.82	17.8	15.4	2.37
Mehmet Okur	66	65	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.45	-8	6	-14	16.2	17.1	-0.98	17.2	16.1	1.06
Deron Williams	70	68	-0.81	0.31	-1.13	-0.37	-15	13	-28	16.9	14.3	2.62	17.0	16.7	0.29

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Payton	42	42	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.44	11	-9	20	18.0	15.8	2.21	18.3	14.6	3.73
Eddie Jones	67	67	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.46	7	-5	12	15.9	20.4	-4.46	16.0	17.6	-1.56
James Posey	48	50	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.31	6	-4	10	16.9	16.9	0.05	16.6	16.1	0.56
Shaquille O'Neal	48	50	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.10	11	-9	20	16.0	18.1	-2.12	16.1	16.8	-0.66
Antoine Walker	47	47	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.31	4	-2	6	18.4	15.1	3.33	17.7	14.9	2.83
Alonzo Mourning	26	25	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.31	-3	5	-8	16.9	16.9	-0.02	17.4	16.0	1.40
Dorell Wright	36	34	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.02	8	-6	14	17.4	16.5	0.94	19.1	14.7	4.41
Michael Doleac	7	8	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	8	-14	18.3	16.8	1.51	14.2	16.6	-2.37
Udonis Haslem	58	59	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.21	-13	15	-28	16.9	16.9	0.00	14.4	20.6	-6.15
Jason Williams	51	53	-0.40	0.90	-1.29	0.04	-15	17	-32	16.2	18.0	-1.81	14.5	19.3	-4.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.15,0.21,0.29,0.22,0.47,0.45,0.78,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 106, IND 108	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.32,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.22,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.13,0.38,0.46,0.78,0.28,1	92.2%
BOS 94, ORL 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.14,0.09,0.14,0.21,0.18,0.07,0.14,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.1,0.05,0.12,0.24,0.23,0.36,0.29,0.47,0.61,0.55,0.66,0.26,1	92.1%
MIL 88, NYK 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.63,0.45,0.27,1	91.9%