NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	109		Excitement	3.2 [1154]		MVP	Antonio Daniels (WAS): +17.1%
Washington Wizards	129		Comeback	1.1 [1001]		LVP	T.J. Ford (TOR): -7.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	14	66%	0.10	4	-0.03	10	90%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.01	0.04	4	91%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.01	0.05	7	81%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	5	40%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrick Martin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Uros Slokar	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	13	54%	0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jorge Garbajosa	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	10	48%	-0.01	4	-0.06	9	89%	-0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.04	-0.03	9	86%	0.20	3	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.15	-0.00	0.02	13	83%	0.16	3	-0.03	4	50%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.02	18	61%	0.14	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	0.00	0.03	5	77%	0.04	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.04
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	4	83%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	7	57%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donell Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	7	50%	-0.00	3	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	5	36%	-0.03	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.7	28.2	16.3	29.3	2.5	29.2	132.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +13.1%

WAS +12.6%

WAS +21.1%

WAS +3.2%

WAS +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	WAS	NBA	TOR	WAS	NBA
this game	13.9	14.7	15.4	107.9	129.0	104.5
season	15.2	14.8		104.7	107.8
opponent	15.3	15.4		108.7	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.5	15.3	14.6	12.5	13.9
WAS	14.8	14.7	14.2	15.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kris Humphries	30	29	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.03	1	-21	22	12.7	14.4	-1.74	15.0	14.6	0.32
Darrick Martin	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-22	24	10.2	14.1	-3.82	13.0	14.8	-1.83
Uros Slokar	12	12	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-23	26	10.4	14.4	-3.98	13.5	14.9	-1.41
Joey Graham	34	31	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.12	2	-22	24	12.6	14.6	-2.05	15.2	14.5	0.70
Jose Calderon	42	40	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.10	-7	-13	6	14.0	13.9	0.05	14.6	14.8	-0.19
Andrea Bargnani	48	47	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.02	-7	-13	6	13.9	14.0	-0.13	15.4	14.1	1.29
Jorge Garbajosa	41	40	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	-11	2	15.0	13.2	1.86	14.2	15.1	-0.90
Morris Peterson	55	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.10	-16	-4	-12	13.2	14.8	-1.66	14.5	15.0	-0.51
Chris Bosh	72	73	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.11	-17	-3	-14	14.1	13.5	0.57	14.7	14.8	-0.05
T.J. Ford	55	55	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.04	-15	-5	-10	14.2	13.6	0.53	15.0	14.4	0.54
Rasho Nesterovic	37	38	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.19	-20	0	-20	15.6	13.0	2.60	14.5	14.9	-0.39
Juan Dixon	75	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.09	-17	-3	-14	14.6	11.9	2.69	14.8	14.5	0.29

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antawn Jamison	64	65	0.51	-0.01	0.51	-0.11	21	-1	22	14.5	15.2	-0.71	14.4	13.1	1.30
Gilbert Arenas	56	58	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.46	31	-11	42	13.5	16.3	-2.74	14.7	12.9	1.85
Caron Butler	55	56	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.09	18	2	16	14.3	15.3	-1.00	14.3	13.4	0.86
Brendan Haywood	43	44	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.11	16	4	12	14.6	14.9	-0.32	15.6	12.6	3.00
Antonio Daniels	51	52	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.07	13	7	6	15.2	14.3	0.89	14.1	13.8	0.28
DeShawn Stevenson	40	40	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.00	6	14	-8	14.9	14.6	0.27	15.1	13.2	1.91
Jarvis Hayes	45	45	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	16	-12	15.3	14.3	1.00	13.4	14.3	-0.86
Andray Blatche	40	39	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	17	-14	15.3	14.3	1.02	13.2	14.4	-1.25
Roger Mason Jr.	41	41	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.17	-4	24	-28	15.8	14.0	1.72	12.0	15.2	-3.19
Calvin Booth	22	23	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	21	-22	14.7	14.8	-0.07	12.6	14.3	-1.76
Darius Songaila	31	31	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	19	-18	14.8	14.7	0.05	12.5	14.5	-2.03
Donell Taylor	12	11	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.23	-8	28	-36	14.5	14.8	-0.27	12.0	14.2	-2.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 69, SAS 86	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.74,0.81,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
CLE 84, SAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
SAS 68, DAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.88,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%