NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	93		Excitement	8.6 [192]		MVP	Mehmet Okur (UTA): +103.2%
Utah Jazz	97		Comeback	1.4 [433]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -17.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.33	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.33	0.12	0.23	0.02	13	64%	0.37	1	-0.04	13	85%	0.07
Tony Parker	0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.11	0.21	0.03	15	79%	0.43	5	-0.14	4	75%	-0.01
Robert Horry	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.26,0.21	0.03	0.17	-0.00	6	67%	0.30	2	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.11,0.11,0.06	-0.00	0.07	0.01	6	50%	0.11	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	64%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Francisco Elson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	6	23%	-0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17	-0.07	-0.12	-0.02	9	42%	-0.06	3	-0.11	6	83%	0.01

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.64,1.03	1.03	0.30	0.74	0.01	14	86%	1.03	0	0.00	8	100%	0.17
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.03	0.16	0.00	9	68%	0.28	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.04	0.17	-0.01	14	44%	0.22	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Rafael Araujo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	7	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.01	4	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	0.01	5	29%	-0.09	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.15	-0.02	-0.01	14	28%	-0.09	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.8	30.5	18.0	31.0	3.5	36.5	150.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -12.0%

UTA +33.5%

UTA +24.8%

UTA +6.5%

SAS -2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	UTA	NBA	SAS	UTA	NBA
this game	15.7	17.0	15.4	106.9	109.0	104.5
season	16.2	15.9		107.5	107.4
opponent	15.0	15.4		104.9	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.5	16.9	14.8	15.8	15.7
UTA	16.5	17.4	17.2	16.9	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jacque Vaughn	15	15	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-5	6	13.1	16.3	-3.13	16.5	17.1	-0.55
Francisco Elson	22	23	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	0	-4	14.2	16.2	-2.06	14.3	17.9	-3.56
Fabricio Oberto	40	40	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.07	-7	3	-10	17.4	14.3	3.19	17.2	16.8	0.38
Beno Udrih	11	12	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.06	-8	4	-12	16.6	15.6	1.04	16.5	17.1	-0.56
Manu Ginobili	49	53	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.43	8	-12	20	14.6	17.2	-2.69	16.5	17.7	-1.19
Tony Parker	61	61	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.34	4	-8	12	16.2	14.6	1.58	17.5	15.9	1.55
Michael Finley	34	36	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.07	-6	2	-8	15.1	16.1	-0.95	16.8	17.1	-0.26
Brent Barry	46	44	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.12	-6	2	-8	16.3	15.0	1.32	16.5	17.5	-1.06
Robert Horry	47	49	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.47	5	-9	14	14.9	16.6	-1.71	17.2	16.7	0.52
Bruce Bowen	45	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.19	-5	1	-6	16.8	14.6	2.23	17.8	16.1	1.69
Tim Duncan	65	66	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.41	-2	-2	0	15.8	15.6	0.12	17.6	15.2	2.39

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Deron Williams	71	70	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	-1	6	16.9	17.3	-0.36	15.5	16.7	-1.22
Andrei Kirilenko	58	58	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.28	4	0	4	17.0	17.0	-0.07	15.5	16.1	-0.62
Matt Harpring	41	39	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.35	0	4	-4	16.4	17.5	-1.06	16.3	15.3	0.96
Mehmet Okur	71	69	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.37	-1	5	-6	17.1	16.4	0.75	15.3	17.2	-1.82
Paul Millsap	54	53	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.41	-5	9	-14	16.3	18.1	-1.76	16.1	15.1	0.95
Rafael Araujo	35	34	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.01	8	-4	12	18.0	16.3	1.67	15.4	15.9	-0.51
Derek Fisher	57	54	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	2	0	17.8	15.6	2.18	16.0	15.2	0.82
Jarron Collins	18	18	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.02	6	-2	8	16.5	17.1	-0.61	16.7	15.5	1.19
Gordan Giricek	40	40	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	3	-2	16.6	17.3	-0.66	15.5	15.9	-0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.69,0.81,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.76,0.63,0.45,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 72, POR 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.87,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.74,0.84,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.72,0.81,0.71,0.67,0.96,1	92.8%
SAS 99, POR 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.89,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.78,0.62,0.55,0.66,0.74,1	92.6%
PHX 84, NJN 86	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.53,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.75,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.68,0.74,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.55,0.68,0.58,1	91.8%