NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	91		Excitement	4.4 [953]		MVP	Mehmet Okur (UTA): +18.6%
Utah Jazz	106		Comeback	1.8 [956]		LVP	Troy Hudson (MIN): -9.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Davis	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.18	0.04	0.06	16	78%	0.26	4	-0.09	9	89%	0.00
Mark Madsen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Mike James	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	10	48%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Marko Jaric	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	8	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Craig Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	16	52%	0.02	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	7	29%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mehmet Okur	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.19	0.05	0.06	16	76%	0.21	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.10	0.04	-0.02	16	62%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	9	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	7	43%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.08	-0.00	0.06	14	64%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jarron Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	5	54%	0.04	4	-0.06	3	33%	-0.02
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	10	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.3	24.3	15.6	23.9	1.8	30.2	119.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +25.9%

UTA +3.3%

MIN -3.8%

UTA +24.2%

UTA +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	UTA	NBA	MIN	UTA	NBA
this game	16.0	16.2	15.4	102.2	117.8	104.5
season	15.4	15.9		101.9	107.4
opponent	15.0	15.6		104.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	13.6	19.7	15.2	15.8	16.0
UTA	18.5	14.0	14.8	17.7	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Madsen	16	16	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.19	6	-21	27	16.4	15.8	0.59	17.5	15.9	1.55
Mike James	48	50	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.05	-1	-14	13	15.0	17.1	-2.07	16.2	16.2	0.04
Marko Jaric	11	11	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.01	-6	-9	3	20.9	15.3	5.65	13.0	16.7	-3.67
Ricky Davis	77	78	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.08	-3	-12	9	15.1	21.7	-6.60	16.7	12.8	3.91
Mark Blount	64	66	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.04	-12	-3	-9	16.0	16.0	-0.01	15.7	17.6	-1.86
Troy Hudson	13	14	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.08	-14	-1	-13	21.0	15.1	5.91	14.1	16.6	-2.55
Craig Smith	20	19	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.11	-15	0	-15	18.3	15.3	3.02	15.0	16.5	-1.55
Kevin Garnett	78	79	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.07	-9	-6	-3	15.3	20.9	-5.65	16.7	13.0	3.67
Trenton Hassell	77	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.13	-7	-8	1	15.3	20.2	-4.96	16.5	14.3	2.24
Randy Foye	41	40	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.01	-14	-1	-13	17.1	15.0	2.07	16.2	16.2	-0.04

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Harpring	49	48	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.07	20	-5	25	15.7	16.8	-1.07	16.7	15.1	1.59
Deron Williams	72	71	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.02	14	1	13	16.2	16.3	-0.14	15.4	18.0	-2.56
Jarron Collins	29	30	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.01	13	2	11	15.4	16.6	-1.24	17.4	15.2	2.13
Paul Millsap	23	23	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.05	8	7	1	15.0	16.6	-1.58	19.2	14.8	4.40
Derek Fisher	68	68	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	13	-11	16.3	15.9	0.47	16.5	14.1	2.43
Gordan Giricek	25	26	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.00	8	7	1	16.0	16.3	-0.36	16.4	15.8	0.66
Mehmet Okur	66	64	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	9	-3	16.3	16.1	0.13	15.3	17.7	-2.45
Carlos Boozer	62	61	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	12	-9	17.0	14.5	2.55	14.8	18.6	-3.82
Andrei Kirilenko	56	54	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	14	-13	16.7	15.5	1.16	15.0	17.4	-2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.41,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.84,0.77,0.69,0.64,0.76,0.71,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.89,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.83,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 88, TOR 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.8,0.84,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.84,0.9,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%
UTA 93, SAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.69,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.77,0.72,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.87,0.81,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%
CHI 97, PHX 115	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.84,0.83,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.81,0.87,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%