NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	118		Excitement	10.9 [43]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +31.7%
Los Angeles Lakers	124		Comeback	1.6 [775]		LVP	Luke Walton (LAL): -24.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.11,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.32	0.12	0.18	-0.02	12	65%	0.32	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.09	-0.01	11	54%	0.17	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
James Posey	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.01	12	67%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.08	0.01	8	62%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	6	45%	0.00	3	-0.12	8	62%	-0.02
Jason Williams	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	6	23%	-0.13	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,0.02,-0.05,-0.13	0.05	-0.17	0.02	25	56%	0.05	4	-0.18	13	85%	0.03

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.12,0.06,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.27	0.27	0.03	0.24	0.00	24	49%	0.36	1	-0.09	3	100%	0.06
Brian Cook	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.26,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.10	0.03	16	74%	0.32	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.00
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	2	150%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.07	0.06	-0.00	7	65%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.05
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.01	-0.00	8	67%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.06	-0.00	10	50%	0.09	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Smush Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.07	0.01	14	57%	0.07	2	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	5	45%	-0.02	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Luke Walton	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.08	-0.14	0.02	12	34%	-0.19	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.1	3.5	29.2	20.8	29.1	2.7	31.3	3.3	18.4	165.4
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	1.9	17.4	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +6.2%

LAL +18.2%

LAL +27.4%

MIA -3.7%

LAL +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAL	NBA	MIA	LAL	NBA
this game	14.9	16.3	15.4	116.8	120.4	104.5
season	16.0	15.3		102.4	106.3
opponent	14.9	15.6		107.3	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	15.8	15.5	14.9	13.8	13.5	14.9
LAL	13.5	16.4	19.4	18.1	12.7	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	14	15	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.04	1	-7	8	16.1	14.7	1.39	16.9	16.2	0.75
Jason Williams	60	61	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-6	6	14.5	15.3	-0.79	16.1	16.6	-0.51
Antoine Walker	47	47	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.15	3	-9	12	15.9	14.0	1.83	16.6	16.1	0.48
Dorell Wright	7	8	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-1	-4	16.4	14.8	1.67	18.7	16.1	2.67
Gary Payton	32	31	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.13	-2	-4	2	15.9	14.4	1.47	17.5	15.7	1.80
James Posey	53	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-4	2	15.3	14.4	0.83	16.1	16.4	-0.30
Udonis Haslem	68	70	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.18	-8	2	-10	14.6	15.5	-0.91	15.8	17.3	-1.44
Dwyane Wade	81	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.38	-2	-4	2	14.4	16.8	-2.40	16.0	17.6	-1.62
Jason Kapono	70	73	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.26	-7	1	-8	14.8	15.1	-0.28	16.0	16.9	-0.91
Alonzo Mourning	73	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.31	-8	2	-10	14.3	16.4	-2.11	16.5	15.7	0.83

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Smush Parker	86	85	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	0	6	16.2	16.6	-0.36	14.5	16.9	-2.38
Andrew Bynum	53	53	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.33	7	-1	8	17.6	14.9	2.66	14.1	15.7	-1.63
Brian Cook	70	70	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.21	10	-4	14	15.4	18.2	-2.83	14.8	15.0	-0.19
Kobe Bryant	86	85	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.24	2	4	-2	16.1	17.5	-1.41	14.5	16.9	-2.46
Maurice Evans	48	45	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	1	4	17.0	15.7	1.25	15.4	14.4	0.95
Ronny Turiaf	21	21	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.04	5	1	4	15.1	16.6	-1.50	16.2	14.5	1.73
Sasha Vujacic	18	16	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.05	4	2	2	17.0	16.1	0.86	16.9	14.5	2.46
Luke Walton	70	69	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.24	-5	11	-16	15.9	17.1	-1.22	14.0	16.8	-2.84
Vladimir Radmanovic	46	45	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.12	-4	10	-14	16.8	15.9	0.89	16.1	13.9	2.20
Jordan Farmar	17	16	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	6	-6	16.6	16.2	0.36	16.9	14.5	2.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.68,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.43,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.74,0.64,0.76,0.87,0.86,0.96,0.78,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.63,0.77,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 103, DAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.39,0.55,0.66,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.57,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.95,0.89,0.68,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.85,1	91.2%
SAC 110, POR 116	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.72,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.58,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.85,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.78,0.99,1	90.6%
PHI 108, POR 114	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.55,0.66,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.72,0.57,0.9,1	89.9%