NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	111		Excitement	5.5 [745]		MVP	Andres Nocioni (CHI): +22.9%
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	108		Comeback	1.5 [833]		LVP	Desmond Mason (NOK): -11.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0.23	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.23,0.23	0.17	0.03	-0.03	23	65%	0.23	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.07	0.06	0.04	10	71%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Luol Deng	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	19	51%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	11	63%	0.10	4	-0.09	5	80%	-0.02
Tyrus Thomas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	71%	0.05	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Michael Sweetney	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.01	0.01	5	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Duhon	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
P.J. Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	6	21%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	4	10%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.04	9	62%	0.07	1	-0.02	11	82%	0.01
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.04,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.17	-0.00	0.13	23	67%	0.13	3	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01
Cedric Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	2	33%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Brandon Bass	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Vinicius	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Jackson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	15	45%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	0.02	13	61%	0.12	7	-0.14	15	80%	0.01
Linton Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	2	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Desmond Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	0.01	12	39%	-0.05	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	0.7	30.0	14.8	30.2	1.8	41.0	147.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +43.3%

NOK -14.6%

CHI +3.5%

CHI +12.2%

CHI +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	NOK	NBA	CHI	NOK	NBA
this game	14.1	14.3	15.4	108.8	106.9	104.5
season	14.5	16.0		103.1	102.8
opponent	15.3	15.9		104.4	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.1	12.7	13.5	15.0	14.1
NOK	13.1	15.0	15.3	13.8	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	68	69	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.15	17	-14	31	13.8	14.6	-0.81	14.3	14.4	-0.11
Andres Nocioni	83	81	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.30	11	-8	19	14.0	14.5	-0.55	15.0	11.5	3.43
Luol Deng	82	81	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.36	5	-2	7	14.5	12.4	2.09	14.3	14.2	0.12
Ben Gordon	61	61	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.32	3	0	3	13.6	14.8	-1.17	13.5	15.5	-1.99
Ben Wallace	69	69	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.30	-3	6	-9	13.9	14.4	-0.47	14.7	13.5	1.21
Michael Sweetney	26	26	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	-2	7	13.8	14.2	-0.41	15.2	14.0	1.26
P.J. Brown	28	27	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	2	-1	15.0	13.7	1.22	11.9	15.2	-3.29
Chris Duhon	40	41	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.28	-10	13	-23	14.2	14.0	0.20	15.0	13.8	1.27
Tyrus Thomas	28	27	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.15	-6	9	-15	13.2	14.4	-1.19	12.7	14.9	-2.12
Thabo Sefolosha	25	23	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.17	-8	11	-19	15.5	13.6	1.86	15.1	14.1	1.08

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyson Chandler	66	68	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.52	19	-22	41	13.4	16.1	-2.69	14.6	13.1	1.49
Marcus Vinicius	1	0	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.05	0	-3	3	2.0	14.4	-12.42	0.0	14.1	-14.08
Brandon Bass	2	3	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-1	-1	28.5	14.0	14.49	8.3	14.3	-5.92
Cedric Simmons	24	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	2	-7	15.7	13.9	1.85	14.2	14.1	0.12
Linton Johnson	15	14	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.00	-8	5	-13	13.8	14.4	-0.58	13.6	14.1	-0.50
Jannero Pargo	61	60	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.36	4	-7	11	13.1	16.2	-3.11	14.9	13.0	1.91
Desmond Mason	82	85	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.29	-2	-1	-1	13.7	16.7	-3.01	13.8	15.5	-1.67
Rasual Butler	95	96	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.45	2	-5	7	14.6	10.0	4.57	14.3	11.2	3.09
Chris Paul	101	102	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.41	-3	0	-3	14.3	0.0	14.30	14.1	0.0	14.08
Marc Jackson	58	58	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.06	-20	17	-37	16.3	11.6	4.65	13.2	15.3	-2.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.24,0.21,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.15,0.26,0.16,0.1,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.12,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 119, CHA 109	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%
GSW 90, NYK 71	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.18,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
MIL 107, LAL 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0.01,0	94.7%