NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	105		Excitement	4.7 [886]		MVP	Mickael Pietrus (GSW): +15.1%
Golden State Warriors	117		Comeback	1.0 [1089]		LVP	Kenny Thomas (SAC): -12.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Martin	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.00	-0.02	16	60%	0.14	4	-0.07	11	100%	0.06
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	7	75%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ronnie Price	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	53%	0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Jason Hart	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	69%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Quincy Douby	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	0.00	0.04	5	79%	0.03	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.03	22	39%	-0.02	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.02
Mike Bibby	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	0.03	15	36%	-0.11	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.01
Kenny Thomas	-0.13	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01	6	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.15	0.01	0.01	16	74%	0.18	2	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.02	-0.00	20	72%	0.25	8	-0.13	10	100%	0.02
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	5	91%	0.10	1	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	11	62%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00
Keith McLeod	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	5	30%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Roberson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	-0.01	15	53%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	-0.01	-0.04	6	45%	0.00	6	-0.11	8	37%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	3.5	32.5	20.3	26.3	3.5	32.6	146.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +63.5%

SAC -21.2%

SAC -1.6%

GSW +5.9%

GSW +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	GSW	NBA	SAC	GSW	NBA
this game	14.5	13.5	15.4	101.9	113.6	104.5
season	14.7	13.5		104.7	105.7
opponent	15.2	15.1		105.7	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.6	15.1	15.2	13.0	14.5
GSW	10.3	14.3	13.6	16.5	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quincy Douby	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-14	16	5.7	14.7	-9.05	15.7	13.4	2.23
Francisco Garcia	17	18	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.01	-3	-9	6	13.5	14.7	-1.18	10.2	14.2	-4.05
Ronnie Price	45	46	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.21	4	-16	20	15.0	14.0	1.04	14.9	12.4	2.51
Jason Hart	42	42	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.10	-2	-10	8	14.8	14.2	0.52	15.3	12.2	3.09
Kenny Thomas	42	41	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.03	-9	-3	-6	13.8	14.9	-1.05	11.4	14.9	-3.43
Corliss Williamson	47	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.15	-3	-9	6	14.3	14.6	-0.33	15.9	11.5	4.39
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	45	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.06	-13	1	-14	15.8	13.4	2.31	12.6	14.2	-1.56
Metta World Peace	96	95	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	-5	-2	14.3	16.0	-1.66	13.6	12.7	0.82
Mike Bibby	75	76	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.01	-17	5	-22	14.3	14.8	-0.45	12.4	16.5	-4.08
Kevin Martin	103	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	0	-12	14.5	0.0	14.46	13.5	0.0	13.50

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	97	97	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.09	16	-4	20	13.6	11.8	1.77	14.5	13.8	0.66
Monta Ellis	66	69	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.02	16	-4	20	13.7	13.2	0.53	14.2	15.0	-0.77
Andris Biedrins	94	94	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.13	11	1	10	13.3	15.7	-2.37	14.3	16.0	-1.69
Mickael Pietrus	76	75	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	2	8	12.5	16.2	-3.68	14.9	13.4	1.51
Mike Dunleavy	54	55	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.11	6	6	0	14.2	12.7	1.55	14.4	14.5	-0.12
Jason Richardson	65	67	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	5	2	12.8	14.7	-1.95	14.2	14.9	-0.67
Keith McLeod	51	49	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.18	-3	15	-18	14.8	12.2	2.61	14.7	14.2	0.53
Matt Barnes	8	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	13	-14	15.0	13.4	1.62	14.3	14.5	-0.13
Anthony Roberson	4	3	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	14	-16	13.0	13.5	-0.53	15.3	14.4	0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.76,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.95,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 92, DET 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.76,0.69,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.77,0.8,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.94,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.97,1,0.99,0.96,0.99,0.95,1	95.7%
UTA 83, POR 101	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.75,0.82,0.84,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.77,0.89,0.92,0.85,0.85,0.94,0.91,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
WAS 99, LAC 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.75,0.82,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.89,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%