NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	93		Excitement	6.9 [454]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +41.9%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	22.6 [100]		LVP	Salim Stoudamire (ATL): -34.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0.29	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.23,0.18,0.29,0.29	0.09	0.20	-0.01	12	81%	0.40	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.06
Joe Johnson	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.00	-0.01	18	62%	0.15	2	-0.04	9	78%	0.00
Al Harrington	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.08	-0.07	0.14	-0.00	13	44%	0.13	3	-0.05	6	83%	0.07
John Edwards	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Esteban Batista	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	3	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Royal Ivey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Salim Stoudamire	-0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.34	-0.09	-0.28	-0.02	10	30%	-0.32	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.42	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.01	4	85%	0.44	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.35	0.35	0.05	0.30	-0.01	10	58%	0.37	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.07
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	12	50%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.01	0.04	7	62%	0.10	5	-0.11	20	55%	-0.08
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.05	0.01	10	61%	0.01	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.00	-0.01	6	14%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,0.12,-0.04,-0.18	-0.18	0.04	-0.20	0.01	9	62%	0.01	2	-0.19	6	83%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	1.8	34.3	14.7	30.6	3.4	40.8	154.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +58.3%

ATL -9.0%

MIA +13.0%

ATL -13.2%

MIA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.9	14.4	15.6	101.1	103.3	104.4
season	15.6	15.5		103.9	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.5		102.3	109.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.8	15.1	19.3	18.5	16.9
MIA	14.6	16.9	12.0	14.3	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marvin Williams	51	49	0.31	-0.81	1.12	-0.01	11	-13	24	16.1	17.8	-1.69	14.8	14.1	0.69
Royal Ivey	52	50	0.24	-0.74	0.97	0.12	4	-6	10	16.3	17.5	-1.20	14.7	14.1	0.62
Zaza Pachulia	35	35	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.05	3	-5	8	15.4	17.8	-2.37	14.0	14.7	-0.70
Esteban Batista	34	34	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.10	-1	-1	0	18.3	16.1	2.21	14.3	14.5	-0.22
Josh Smith	87	87	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.44	-3	1	-4	16.9	16.4	0.50	14.3	16.8	-2.50
Joe Johnson	86	86	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.42	-5	3	-8	17.1	13.7	3.43	14.2	18.0	-3.81
John Edwards	18	20	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.54	-4	2	-6	16.9	16.9	0.09	15.9	14.0	1.94
Al Harrington	61	61	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.53	-7	5	-12	17.4	15.9	1.46	14.2	14.9	-0.76
Salim Stoudamire	36	38	-0.77	0.27	-1.03	-0.53	-8	6	-14	17.3	16.6	0.76	14.7	14.3	0.38

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	62	62	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.43	15	-13	28	14.4	14.5	-0.10	17.1	16.4	0.70
Jason Williams	71	72	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.52	7	-5	12	14.8	13.3	1.49	16.5	18.3	-1.89
Alonzo Mourning	42	40	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.63	0	2	-2	13.5	15.2	-1.68	17.2	16.6	0.63
Derek Anderson	44	44	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.62	-1	3	-4	14.0	14.9	-0.88	17.4	16.4	0.95
Gary Payton	56	57	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.53	-1	3	-4	15.0	13.5	1.54	17.1	16.6	0.48
Shaquille O'Neal	49	52	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.11	4	-2	6	15.1	13.7	1.34	16.6	17.2	-0.63
James Posey	32	33	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.13	1	1	0	14.2	14.5	-0.33	16.6	17.0	-0.36
Shandon Anderson	33	31	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.08	-4	6	-10	14.2	14.5	-0.30	17.0	16.8	0.15
Antoine Walker	71	69	-0.53	1.03	-1.55	-0.20	-11	13	-24	14.2	15.1	-0.92	16.7	17.4	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.36,0.15,0.43,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 110, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.17,0.2,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.43,0.59,1	93.1%
CHI 96, IND 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.24,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.18,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.27,1	92.8%
MEM 99, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.22,0.3,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.18,0.1,0.16,0.32,0.58,1	92.5%