NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	93		Excitement	7.6 [313]		MVP	Joe Smith (MIL): +15.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	3.7 [688]		LVP	Kevin Burleson (CHA): -19.6%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jake Voskuhl	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	4	80%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Primoz Brezec	0.08	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.01	12	56%	0.11	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Melvin Ely	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.01	0.00	12	68%	0.15	3	-0.10	7	71%	0.00
Bernard Robinson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	36%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.02
Lonny Baxter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	16	47%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.03
Jumaine Jones	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.07	-0.01	13	43%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Raymond Felton	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.08	-0.02	10	61%	0.07	5	-0.17	3	67%	-0.01
Kevin Burleson	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.2	-0.06	-0.13	0.00	4	20%	-0.05	1	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.10	-0.00	7	67%	0.19	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.07	0.01	10	62%	0.18	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.04
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	3	58%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.04,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	7	63%	0.12	3	-0.12	5	80%	0.02
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	14	53%	0.12	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	19	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.06
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	6	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	2.4	30.7	15.6	29.0	1.7	39.2	144.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +17.6%

MIL +4.8%

MIL +7.9%

MIL +21.5%

CHA -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIL	NBA	CHA	MIL	NBA
this game	15.8	15.8	15.6	101.1	110.0	104.4
season	14.8	15.5		100.5	104.6
opponent	15.5	15.4		106.0	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.8	14.9	17.9	15.8	15.8
MIL	16.5	17.2	14.0	15.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raymond Felton	59	58	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.07	1	-7	8	16.3	15.0	1.37	14.7	17.8	-3.12
Melvin Ely	69	69	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.39	11	-17	28	16.4	14.2	2.23	15.7	16.1	-0.45
Lonny Baxter	6	4	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.04	-6	0	-6	16.7	15.8	0.88	15.2	15.8	-0.58
Jumaine Jones	82	82	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.30	4	-10	14	15.8	16.4	-0.62	16.0	14.1	1.84
Matt Carroll	78	78	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.28	3	-9	12	15.8	16.3	-0.52	16.1	13.8	2.27
Primoz Brezec	65	65	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.19	-2	-4	2	16.2	15.1	1.04	15.5	16.6	-1.05
Alan Anderson	12	11	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	6	-18	13.6	16.2	-2.60	11.6	16.4	-4.74
Jake Voskuhl	27	26	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.14	-7	1	-8	15.3	16.1	-0.78	17.1	15.3	1.85
Kevin Burleson	35	34	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.26	-4	-2	-2	15.9	15.8	0.15	18.1	14.4	3.77
Bernard Robinson	27	23	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.06	-18	12	-30	14.3	16.5	-2.20	15.3	16.0	-0.72

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	40	40	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.27	17	-11	28	15.2	16.3	-1.04	14.9	16.6	-1.68
Charlie Bell	45	45	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.17	18	-12	30	15.2	16.4	-1.20	15.7	16.0	-0.22
Dan Gadzuric	32	34	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.07	17	-11	28	14.9	16.3	-1.44	16.7	15.4	1.31
Jiri Welsch	31	33	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.09	10	-4	14	13.0	17.3	-4.22	14.9	16.4	-1.42
Michael Redd	81	80	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.35	0	6	-6	15.8	15.6	0.27	15.7	17.0	-1.32
T.J. Ford	65	68	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.13	0	6	-6	16.3	14.4	1.94	16.0	15.5	0.41
Bobby Simmons	52	54	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	14	-22	16.6	14.7	1.93	15.6	16.1	-0.48
Jamaal Magloire	54	54	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.26	-13	19	-32	17.0	14.1	2.91	16.3	15.2	1.09
Andrew Bogut	50	52	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	0.05	-11	17	-28	16.3	15.2	1.04	16.6	14.9	1.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.4,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.27,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.72,0.84,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 115, LAC 119	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.45,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.38,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.7,0.57,0.57,0.81,0.69,0.59,0.66,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.83,1	93.2%
CHH 83, ATL 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.26,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.61,0.69,0.79,0.78,0.72,1	92.9%
WAS 91, BOS 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.9,0.84,0.83,0.91,1	92.3%