NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	5.8 [668]		MVP	Clifford Robinson (NJN): +21.9%
New Jersey Nets	105		Comeback	1.0 [1096]		LVP	Gary Payton (MIA): -18.1%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.03	0.03	14	59%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.01	0.04	21	60%	0.11	2	-0.05	10	90%	0.04
Alonzo Mourning	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	6	75%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Wayne Simien	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	3	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	7	47%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	7	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	12	38%	0.02	6	-0.16	5	60%	-0.01
Gary Payton	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	6	0%	-0.12	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.12	0.10	0.00	15	70%	0.25	2	-0.03	3	33%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.06	0.03	11	73%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.12	0.00	0.04	17	65%	0.15	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	2	100%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zoran Planinic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linton Johnson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	5	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Marc Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	24	51%	0.04	6	-0.17	7	86%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.8	32.1	17.8	25.0	2.4	32.5	137.5
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +57.1%

MIA -10.2%

NJN +1.3%

NJN +1.5%

NJN +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NJN	NBA	MIA	NJN	NBA
this game	15.8	14.8	15.6	98.9	110.5	104.4
season	15.5	15.7		106.1	102.1
opponent	15.7	15.5		100.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	13.9	16.3	17.8	15.8
NJN	13.3	12.8	15.0	19.1	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	41	40	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.09	8	-21	29	14.5	16.9	-2.33	15.1	14.6	0.46
Shandon Anderson	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-13	13	11.0	15.9	-4.89	22.0	14.7	7.27
Jason Kapono	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-12	11	11.0	15.9	-4.95	20.5	14.7	5.81
Dorell Wright	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-12	11	11.0	15.9	-4.95	20.5	14.7	5.81
Wayne Simien	37	36	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	-8	3	15.0	16.4	-1.39	13.1	15.8	-2.69
Dwyane Wade	81	83	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.05	-7	-6	-1	15.6	17.2	-1.62	14.5	16.8	-2.32
James Posey	74	76	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.02	-11	-2	-9	15.7	16.3	-0.60	14.6	15.7	-1.09
Jason Williams	54	57	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-9	5	16.8	14.5	2.28	15.9	13.2	2.62
Antoine Walker	56	59	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-5	-3	16.4	15.0	1.39	15.8	13.1	2.69
Gary Payton	68	69	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.10	-17	4	-21	15.6	16.6	-0.99	14.0	16.9	-2.86
Shaquille O'Neal	49	50	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.07	-19	6	-25	17.3	14.2	3.02	14.7	14.9	-0.23

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Collins	64	61	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.07	22	-9	31	14.6	15.2	-0.52	16.5	14.6	1.90
Vince Carter	79	79	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.04	22	-9	31	14.9	14.4	0.52	15.3	18.7	-3.39
Clifford Robinson	74	71	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.12	19	-6	25	14.9	14.3	0.61	16.2	14.5	1.69
Richard Jefferson	87	84	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.04	19	-6	25	14.5	18.0	-3.48	16.0	14.4	1.54
Jason Kidd	85	82	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.02	19	-6	25	14.4	18.4	-4.01	15.8	16.0	-0.18
Zoran Planinic	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	22.0	14.7	7.27	11.0	15.9	-4.89
Linton Johnson	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	22.0	14.7	7.27	11.0	15.9	-4.89
Antoine Wright	10	10	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.13	-7	20	-27	16.0	14.7	1.33	15.5	15.9	-0.38
Marc Jackson	16	18	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.01	-7	20	-27	16.0	14.6	1.43	13.8	16.3	-2.49
Scott Padgett	32	33	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.04	-9	22	-31	14.1	15.2	-1.03	15.3	16.1	-0.83
Jacque Vaughn	26	25	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.13	-13	26	-39	16.0	14.3	1.69	17.0	15.4	1.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.84,0.85,0.79,0.72,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.75,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.89,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.53,0.71,0.87,0.85,0.96,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 75, DET 94	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.66,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.83,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.96,1,1,1	92.3%
TOR 103, IND 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.58,0.59,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.78,0.93,0.9,0.93,1,1	91.9%
DAL 104, OKC 118	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.89,0.86,0.92,0.87,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.89,0.93,0.81,0.93,1,1,1	91.7%