NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	97		Excitement	7.8 [299]		MVP	Maurice Evans (DET): +15.1%
Detroit Pistons	99		Comeback	1.1 [980]		LVP	Luther Head (HOU): -7.7%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Wesley	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.01	5	62%	0.07	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	13	53%	0.13	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Dikembe Mutombo	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	80%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.19,0.23,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.09,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.02	0.12	-0.08	0.02	33	58%	0.18	4	-0.15	8	87%	0.02
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Lucas III	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	14	46%	0.06	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Luther Head	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	5	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.07	0.01	4	79%	0.15	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.02
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.12,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.08	0.01	15	55%	0.21	3	-0.10	14	93%	0.09
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.07	-0.01	10	50%	0.11	1	-0.01	6	50%	-0.04
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.03	-0.00	14	67%	0.19	3	-0.13	8	75%	-0.04
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.03	0.00	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	16	34%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	8	45%	-0.01	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	30.1	15.7	29.2	3.4	35.3	142.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +1.3%

DET +21.4%

DET +23.1%

DET +2.2%

DET +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DET	NBA	HOU	DET	NBA
this game	15.6	17.1	15.6	109.0	113.8	104.4
season	16.1	16.9		99.9	108.3
opponent	15.8	16.1		101.4	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.7	15.4	15.1	16.2	15.6
DET	15.6	18.2	18.4	16.5	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	2	1	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-2	2	19.0	15.5	3.48	20.0	17.1	2.88
Dikembe Mutombo	53	50	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.17	3	-5	8	15.6	15.5	0.11	17.7	16.4	1.25
John Lucas III	9	8	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	3	-8	17.4	15.4	2.06	16.6	17.2	-0.58
David Wesley	72	70	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.37	8	-10	18	15.1	17.6	-2.46	17.2	16.9	0.26
Tracy McGrady	76	73	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.39	1	-3	4	15.5	16.4	-0.92	17.5	15.1	2.39
Juwan Howard	84	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.50	2	-4	6	15.5	16.8	-1.28	17.2	16.2	0.94
Luther Head	41	42	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.18	-9	7	-16	15.7	15.5	0.25	15.7	18.5	-2.77
Charles Hayes	38	39	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.14	-11	9	-20	15.7	15.5	0.11	16.7	17.5	-0.74
Rafer Alston	70	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.52	1	-3	4	15.8	14.7	1.09	17.4	16.3	1.10

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Evans	36	37	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.42	7	-5	12	17.7	16.8	0.93	15.8	15.4	0.37
Richard Hamilton	73	75	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.47	-4	6	-10	17.1	17.4	-0.25	15.4	16.4	-0.99
Chauncey Billups	76	77	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.46	-4	6	-10	17.3	16.1	1.21	15.2	17.9	-2.68
Rasheed Wallace	70	70	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.28	2	0	2	17.5	15.7	1.79	15.9	14.4	1.49
Ben Wallace	65	67	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.36	-3	5	-8	17.1	17.4	-0.35	15.6	15.6	-0.05
Antonio McDyess	39	41	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	-3	8	16.7	17.5	-0.88	15.1	16.0	-0.97
Tayshaun Prince	46	46	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.22	-1	3	-4	17.6	16.6	0.97	15.7	15.5	0.21
Carlos Arroyo	11	12	0.16	0.34	-0.19	-0.02	6	-4	10	16.1	17.3	-1.21	17.9	15.2	2.68
Carlos Delfino	19	20	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	0	2	15.2	17.7	-2.55	15.5	15.6	-0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.77,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.47,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 96, POR 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.69,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.85,0.84,0.84,1	94.3%
ATL 85, DET 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.89,0.91,0.96,1	92.9%
OKC 90, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.86,0.96,1	92.9%