NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	101		Excitement	7.4 [349]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +33.8%
Miami Heat	94		Comeback	3.0 [278]		LVP	Michael Finley (SAS): -16.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.34	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.34	0.23	0.12	0.02	18	78%	0.40	3	-0.07	13	77%	-0.02
Brent Barry	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21	0.06	0.15	-0.00	3	87%	0.21	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.08	0.01	5	60%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	62%	0.06	2	-0.04	7	43%	-0.04
Nick Van Exel	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	10	42%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.04
Sean Marks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	10	44%	0.00	3	-0.09	12	33%	-0.09
Michael Finley	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16	-0.09	-0.06	0.02	8	26%	-0.14	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.13	-0.00	14	59%	0.25	3	-0.07	11	45%	-0.10
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.05	0.00	9	60%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Williams	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.03	0.00	11	75%	0.17	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.06	0.02	29	55%	0.06	5	-0.12	8	87%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	3	12%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	3.5	36.4	18.5	33.0	2.8	40.1	161.4
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +24.0%

SAS +4.8%

SAS +15.1%

SAS +4.2%

SAS +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIA	NBA	SAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	14.8	15.6	106.3	97.9	104.4
season	16.3	15.5		106.0	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.6		102.3	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	15.4	15.5	16.0	15.4
MIA	14.5	13.4	16.5	14.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	64	64	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.54	9	-2	11	15.0	16.3	-1.31	14.9	14.5	0.38
Brent Barry	24	24	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.43	6	1	5	14.5	15.7	-1.16	14.7	14.7	-0.00
Tony Parker	77	78	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.32	8	-1	9	15.3	16.1	-0.80	14.8	14.7	0.10
Rasho Nesterovic	52	52	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.30	8	-1	9	15.5	15.3	0.11	14.6	14.9	-0.34
Fabricio Oberto	37	36	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.05	12	-5	17	15.6	15.3	0.30	14.4	15.0	-0.58
Manu Ginobili	42	43	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.01	9	-2	11	15.3	15.5	-0.27	13.5	15.8	-2.24
Tim Duncan	75	77	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.24	0	7	-7	15.4	15.6	-0.24	15.1	13.3	1.85
Sean Marks	13	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	8	-9	17.5	15.1	2.38	13.8	14.9	-1.05
Nazr Mohammed	11	12	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.00	-6	13	-19	14.7	15.5	-0.77	17.4	14.4	3.05
Michael Finley	55	57	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.20	-2	9	-11	15.4	15.4	-0.02	14.9	14.6	0.27
Nick Van Exel	25	25	-0.47	0.97	-1.44	-0.24	-8	15	-23	17.1	14.8	2.27	15.1	14.6	0.50

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	78	78	0.18	-0.68	0.86	0.09	3	-10	13	14.6	15.3	-0.65	15.6	14.6	0.93
Udonis Haslem	40	37	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-8	9	14.9	14.6	0.34	14.8	15.8	-0.98
Alonzo Mourning	33	34	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.02	-6	-1	-5	14.2	15.1	-0.91	16.0	15.1	0.87
Shaquille O'Neal	61	61	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.33	1	-8	9	15.5	13.4	2.12	15.1	16.0	-0.87
Gary Payton	49	49	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.18	-6	-1	-5	14.0	15.6	-1.62	15.3	15.5	-0.22
Jason Williams	77	75	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.34	-5	-2	-3	15.6	11.4	4.22	15.7	14.3	1.34
Antoine Walker	58	58	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.22	-10	3	-13	14.1	15.7	-1.55	15.8	14.8	0.98
Dwyane Wade	84	83	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.46	-13	6	-19	14.6	16.1	-1.52	15.1	17.8	-2.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.25,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.71,0.61,0.55,0.28,0.23,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 107, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.23,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.1,0.02,0	92.4%
WAS 89, HOU 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.69,0.46,0.32,0.17,0	92.3%
HOU 109, ATL 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.2,0.11,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.23,0.16,0.01,0	91.6%