NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	117		Excitement	2.9 [1220]		MVP	Maurice Evans (DET): +12.3%
Atlanta Hawks	89		Comeback	1.3 [541]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -13.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Evans	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.05	0.00	-0.07	10	70%	0.12	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	7	86%	0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	15	66%	0.10	2	-0.02	2	100%	-0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.18	0.01	0.13	11	85%	0.08	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.11	-0.00	0.09	8	78%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.02	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.04	9	55%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Darko Milicic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	56%	0.00	0	0.00	3	33%	0.00
Dale Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02
Tayshaun Prince	-0.03	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.09	0.00	-0.05	12	27%	-0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	4	40%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	18	51%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Salim Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	13	53%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.01
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	8	33%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Esteban Batista	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	8	50%	-0.00	3	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	9	35%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	0.03	10	42%	-0.04	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.01	0.05	16	37%	-0.09	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.8	28.0	15.5	24.2	1.5	27.5	119.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +58.4%

ATL -8.7%

DET +0.3%

ATL -1.7%

DET +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	16.7	15.1	15.6	130.0	97.8	104.4
season	16.9	15.6		108.3	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.8		109.3	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.6	16.4	16.0	16.8	16.7
ATL	13.7	15.7	16.0	15.1	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tayshaun Prince	49	49	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.32	26	2	24	17.1	16.2	0.82	16.3	13.7	2.61
Carlos Arroyo	31	30	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.05	14	14	0	16.9	16.6	0.33	14.7	15.4	-0.66
Maurice Evans	39	39	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.11	16	12	4	17.7	15.9	1.73	15.4	14.9	0.47
Ben Wallace	66	67	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.27	21	7	14	16.9	16.1	0.83	15.1	15.1	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	47	48	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.30	21	7	14	16.4	17.0	-0.51	16.6	13.5	3.05
Antonio McDyess	31	33	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.14	13	15	-2	17.4	16.3	1.11	15.0	15.2	-0.18
Richard Hamilton	51	52	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.21	12	16	-4	15.9	17.7	-1.73	14.9	15.4	-0.47
Chauncey Billups	59	61	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.27	14	14	0	16.6	16.9	-0.33	15.4	14.7	0.66
Dale Davis	15	15	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.08	6	22	-16	17.5	16.5	0.93	12.3	15.7	-3.36
Carlos Delfino	41	42	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.00	2	26	-24	16.2	17.1	-0.82	13.7	16.3	-2.61
Darko Milicic	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	31	-34	13.2	16.9	-3.77	15.2	15.1	0.06
Jason Maxiell	15	14	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	30	-32	15.6	16.9	-1.31	13.4	15.5	-2.03

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Esteban Batista	8	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-26	24	16.0	15.1	0.94	11.9	17.2	-5.33
Royal Ivey	22	23	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-24	20	14.7	15.3	-0.55	15.7	17.0	-1.28
Marvin Williams	48	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.22	-13	-15	2	14.2	16.2	-1.93	15.2	18.2	-3.02
Josh Smith	64	65	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.36	-18	-10	-8	14.4	16.9	-2.54	17.4	14.8	2.67
Josh Childress	66	65	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.13	-14	-14	0	15.1	15.4	-0.30	15.8	18.9	-3.03
Al Harrington	59	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.13	-16	-12	-4	15.7	14.0	1.71	17.5	15.1	2.38
Salim Stoudamire	60	60	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.23	-24	-4	-20	15.8	13.8	1.98	16.5	17.1	-0.67
Joe Johnson	71	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.28	-26	-2	-24	15.3	14.7	0.57	17.5	13.9	3.63
Zaza Pachulia	57	55	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.15	-23	-5	-18	15.4	14.7	0.70	17.5	15.4	2.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 128, NYK 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.2,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.9%
CHI 107, ATL 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%
MIN 98, NYK 77	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.16,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%