NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	84		Excitement	3.9 [1052]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +15.2%
San Antonio Spurs	98		Comeback	1.1 [1160]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -8.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
James Posey	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	150%	0.07	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Fitch	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Simien	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	0.00	0.02	6	47%	-0.02	2	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02
Jason Kapono	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	31%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.13	-0.00	-0.05	15	29%	-0.04	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	0.00	-0.02	0.07	20	54%	0.01	5	-0.09	17	88%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.02	0.01	16	69%	0.18	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.01	0.00	18	62%	0.14	3	-0.03	9	67%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	5	75%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.06	0.02	-0.06	12	48%	0.10	5	-0.08	5	80%	0.03
Beno Udrih	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.00	0.04	9	56%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	-0.05	11	33%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.6	30.5	17.0	29.2	3.6	41.4	152.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +26.2%

SAS +4.9%

SAS +9.5%

SAS +7.8%

SAS +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.3	15.6	90.3	105.4	104.4
season	15.5	16.3		106.1	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		99.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.8	15.6	17.9	12.8	15.6
SAS	15.2	15.0	16.4	14.9	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Doleac	9	11	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-16	18	15.2	15.7	-0.44	12.6	15.7	-3.07
Antoine Walker	54	53	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.11	4	-18	22	14.3	17.4	-3.12	14.8	16.1	-1.28
Gerald Fitch	3	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-12	10	8.7	15.9	-7.19	9.0	15.5	-6.48
Wayne Simien	11	12	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-14	14	13.5	15.9	-2.46	16.8	15.1	1.71
Shandon Anderson	19	18	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.06	-4	-10	6	14.6	15.9	-1.31	13.3	15.8	-2.56
James Posey	37	38	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.12	0	-14	14	17.6	14.3	3.36	16.5	14.5	1.95
Gary Payton	46	46	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.12	-3	-11	8	14.5	16.7	-2.22	15.4	15.3	0.14
Jason Kapono	52	51	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.03	-8	-6	-2	14.3	17.3	-2.94	14.8	16.0	-1.11
Jason Williams	47	47	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	-3	-8	16.7	14.5	2.22	15.3	15.4	-0.14
Alonzo Mourning	58	56	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.01	-16	2	-18	16.7	13.9	2.83	16.1	14.2	1.83
Udonis Haslem	54	54	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.02	-18	4	-22	16.3	14.7	1.60	15.4	15.3	0.02
Dwyane Wade	75	77	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.15	-14	0	-14	16.1	13.8	2.29	15.8	13.4	2.38

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	70	71	0.65	-0.15	0.81	-0.08	25	-11	36	15.6	14.7	0.86	15.9	14.7	1.23
Tony Parker	67	68	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	3	8	15.0	16.3	-1.28	16.1	14.3	1.84
Bruce Bowen	59	59	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.04	11	3	8	16.2	13.8	2.44	16.0	15.0	0.98
Brent Barry	21	22	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.00	12	2	10	14.9	15.5	-0.57	15.5	15.7	-0.16
Manu Ginobili	66	63	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.06	7	7	0	14.9	16.4	-1.50	15.4	16.1	-0.65
Robert Horry	34	35	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	13	-12	15.4	15.3	0.15	14.8	16.1	-1.32
Nazr Mohammed	25	25	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	10	-6	14.9	15.5	-0.58	16.1	15.4	0.68
Nick Van Exel	24	23	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	13	-12	16.9	14.8	2.06	15.0	15.8	-0.89
Rasho Nesterovic	41	41	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.20	-4	18	-22	16.8	14.2	2.57	16.9	14.7	2.20
Michael Finley	50	51	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.07	4	10	-6	14.1	16.8	-2.65	14.5	17.0	-2.47
Beno Udrih	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	12	-10	9.0	15.5	-6.48	8.7	15.9	-7.19
Fabricio Oberto	6	4	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	18	-22	12.0	15.6	-3.57	15.5	15.6	-0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.69,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.91,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.97,1,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 87, BOS 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.98,1,1	96.0%
WAS 91, SAC 116	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
CLE 75, PHI 104	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%