NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	99		Excitement	7.8 [292]		MVP	Earl Boykins (DEN): +39.9%
Denver Nuggets	101		Comeback	1.6 [801]		LVP	James Posey (MIA): -20.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22	0.15	0.09	0.02	16	63%	0.25	1	-0.03	19	74%	0.00
Gary Payton	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.16	0.07	0.01	7	106%	0.24	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	10	55%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.17,0.03	0.01	0.03	-0.00	21	48%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Simien	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	7	37%	-0.04	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.04
James Posey	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.2	-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	6	36%	-0.12	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.4	0.40	0.03	0.37	0.00	11	50%	0.40	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.06	0.01	20	53%	0.13	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.06	0.00	16	56%	0.20	4	-0.14	7	86%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	10	48%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	15	29%	-0.15	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.6	30.5	15.7	30.3	2.5	33.8	139.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +23.2%

DEN +4.5%

DEN +1.1%

DEN +22.6%

MIA -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	17.8	13.7	15.6	108.8	109.8	104.4
season	15.5	14.4		106.1	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.5		103.5	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.3	19.3	17.1	16.5	17.8
DEN	12.4	12.5	12.9	17.0	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Kapono	25	27	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.14	7	-9	16	16.2	18.5	-2.27	15.9	12.7	3.22
Wayne Simien	16	16	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.13	6	-8	14	16.3	18.2	-1.86	17.3	12.9	4.43
Antoine Walker	63	65	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.08	2	-4	6	17.1	19.5	-2.34	14.1	12.5	1.66
Shandon Anderson	9	7	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.02	-7	5	-12	22.0	17.4	4.61	11.6	13.8	-2.25
Dwyane Wade	63	67	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.36	3	-5	8	17.5	18.6	-1.15	13.3	14.6	-1.30
Jason Williams	40	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	9	-20	20.0	16.1	3.93	11.7	15.2	-3.50
James Posey	79	80	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.47	3	-5	8	17.3	21.6	-4.30	13.8	12.8	0.94
Gary Payton	59	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.36	-1	-1	0	17.2	19.1	-1.88	14.6	12.0	2.62
Alonzo Mourning	49	48	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.30	-6	4	-10	19.3	16.1	3.21	12.8	14.6	-1.76
Udonis Haslem	52	52	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.38	-6	4	-10	18.2	17.4	0.85	12.5	15.1	-2.65

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Boykins	49	48	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.35	14	-12	26	13.7	13.6	0.18	18.4	17.3	1.12
Andre Miller	70	69	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.45	3	-1	4	13.5	14.1	-0.58	17.9	17.6	0.28
Eduardo Najera	53	51	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.18	12	-10	22	14.0	13.2	0.73	18.2	17.4	0.84
Kenyon Martin	63	63	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	1	0	12.7	15.7	-2.93	18.2	17.0	1.27
Carmelo Anthony	55	56	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.45	-10	12	-22	14.0	13.1	0.91	16.9	19.3	-2.34
Marcus Camby	68	67	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.42	-9	11	-20	14.3	11.9	2.35	17.5	18.9	-1.45
Linas Kleiza	15	16	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.03	5	-3	8	11.8	14.0	-2.21	18.3	17.7	0.57
Greg Buckner	57	55	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	5	-8	12.7	15.1	-2.41	17.5	18.4	-0.99
DerMarr Johnson	30	30	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	5	-8	15.8	12.6	3.24	18.4	17.6	0.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.73,0.72,0.61,0.74,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.89,0.89,0.9,0.93,0.85,0.71,0.68,0.53,0.6,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.84,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 93, SAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.78,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.76,0.76,0.86,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.75,0.8,0.73,0.64,0.76,0.67,0.89,0.99,0.97,1,1	92.1%
DEN 94, UTA 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.92,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.54,0.67,0.8,0.89,0.78,0.73,1	92.1%
SEA 93, UTA 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.84,0.89,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.67,0.63,0.53,0.59,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.96,1	92.0%