NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	104		Excitement	8.9 [155]		MVP	Bonzi Wells (SAC): +51.4%
Sacramento Kings	106		Comeback	6.3 [305]		LVP	Francisco Garcia (SAC): -22.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.34	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.34,0.34	0.14	0.20	-0.00	13	69%	0.34	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Rafael Araujo	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	8	78%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	12	58%	0.09	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01	0.02	-0.04	-0.00	12	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike James	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.06	-0.00	17	49%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	2	33%	0.00	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Jalen Rose	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19	-0.07	-0.12	-0.01	10	46%	-0.01	4	-0.18	4	100%	0.03

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bonzi Wells	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.51	0.51	0.05	0.48	0.01	14	55%	0.54	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.08
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.04	0.01	10	76%	0.20	1	-0.02	9	89%	0.03
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.26,0.26,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.00	21	57%	0.17	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.05
Brad Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.09	-0.02	0.00	11	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.08	2	-0.06	3	67%	0.00
Jason Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	4	10%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.08	-0.15	-0.01	13	45%	0.02	4	-0.25	3	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.8	1.8	33.3	15.7	25.2	2.7	34.7	134.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +32.6%

SAC +7.1%

SAC +20.5%

TOR -14.8%

SAC +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SAC	NBA	TOR	SAC	NBA
this game	15.3	15.5	15.6	109.5	115.2	104.4
season	15.6	15.3		107.3	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.4		103.8	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.6	13.2	14.8	19.3	15.3
SAC	15.4	15.6	15.3	15.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joey Graham	45	43	0.21	-0.71	0.91	0.00	7	-9	16	14.1	16.4	-2.31	15.9	15.1	0.72
Matt Bonner	21	20	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.00	4	-6	10	13.1	16.0	-2.86	16.9	15.1	1.88
Mike James	72	70	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.25	4	-6	10	16.0	13.3	2.61	15.7	14.7	0.99
Rafael Araujo	44	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.10	-8	6	-14	15.6	15.1	0.54	14.5	16.4	-1.85
Jose Calderon	41	39	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.13	-8	6	-14	14.7	15.8	-1.13	15.2	15.7	-0.43
Charlie Villanueva	53	50	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.56	4	-6	10	15.2	15.5	-0.27	16.2	14.6	1.62
Morris Peterson	71	69	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.49	1	-3	4	15.3	15.5	-0.29	15.3	16.1	-0.87
Chris Bosh	72	69	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.43	-4	2	-6	15.9	13.6	2.32	15.1	16.5	-1.39
Jalen Rose	56	55	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.46	-10	8	-18	16.1	14.3	1.77	15.3	15.7	-0.38

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	73	74	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.50	5	-3	8	15.2	16.5	-1.32	15.9	13.3	2.62
Bonzi Wells	71	75	0.59	-0.10	0.69	0.54	2	0	2	15.8	14.3	1.55	15.6	14.4	1.17
Francisco Garcia	82	82	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.37	7	-5	12	15.2	17.8	-2.60	15.8	12.1	3.76
Mike Bibby	69	71	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.52	0	2	-2	15.7	14.9	0.75	15.7	14.3	1.38
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	77	80	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.56	-3	5	-8	15.8	14.1	1.69	15.1	16.7	-1.67
Jason Hart	25	25	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.07	1	1	0	15.2	15.6	-0.38	14.5	15.6	-1.15
Kenny Thomas	34	36	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.18	2	0	2	15.4	15.5	-0.06	14.7	15.7	-0.97
Kevin Martin	29	32	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.02	-4	6	-10	15.2	15.6	-0.40	13.3	16.3	-3.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.58,0.5,0.56,0.47,0.53,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.52,0.59,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.37,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.14,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.46,0.76,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 102, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.5,0.41,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.62,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.43,0.25,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.54,0.78,0.73,1	91.5%
MIL 91, CHI 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.47,0.53,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.58,0.64,0.52,0.62,0.52,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.17,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.18,0.31,0.34,0.77,0.73,1	91.0%
UTA 82, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.39,0.33,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.72,1	90.8%