NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	104		Excitement	9.3 [118]		MVP	Nick Collison (SEA): +26.2%
Seattle SuperSonics	106		Comeback	4.2 [415]		LVP	Luke Ridnour (SEA): -27.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.21	-0.04	0.02	14	86%	0.20	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0,0.09,0.04,0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.02	16	62%	0.23	5	-0.21	8	87%	0.02
Bonzi Wells	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	12	50%	0.10	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Martin	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.1,0.05,0.05,-0.06	0.03	-0.09	0.00	10	64%	0.09	3	-0.15	5	40%	-0.20
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.09	0.03	-0.10	0.01	10	73%	0.00	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Jason Hart	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.07,0.26	0.26	0.03	0.23	0.00	8	59%	0.28	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.07
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.00	20	60%	0.22	3	-0.09	7	71%	-0.06
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.01	-0.00	13	65%	0.15	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.04	-0.01	6	83%	0.16	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	5	80%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mateen Cleaves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.03	-0.10	0.02	13	50%	-0.05	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.15,-0.33,-0.28	-0.28	-0.05	-0.24	-0.01	11	42%	-0.16	2	-0.12	2	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	28.2	15.7	25.0	2.0	34.2	129.8
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC -16.1%

SEA +23.8%

SEA +22.9%

SEA +15.3%

SEA +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SEA	NBA	SAC	SEA	NBA
this game	14.8	15.8	15.6	110.6	112.8	104.4
season	15.3	15.0		104.7	108.9
opponent	15.8	15.5		112.2	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	12.8	15.7	16.1	15.1	14.8
SEA	15.5	15.7	14.5	17.6	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Martin	28	30	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	1	-4	14.7	14.9	-0.18	16.2	15.6	0.59
Jason Hart	22	21	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.02	-6	4	-10	17.1	14.1	3.00	17.9	15.2	2.65
Kenny Thomas	37	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	7	-16	16.3	13.9	2.40	17.1	15.0	2.08
Peja Stojakovic	77	76	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.42	5	-7	12	14.8	15.2	-0.48	15.6	16.6	-0.94
Mike Bibby	80	79	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.41	4	-6	10	14.1	19.1	-4.97	15.3	18.2	-2.86
Brad Miller	80	81	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-4	6	14.2	18.5	-4.30	16.0	14.8	1.19
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	71	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.53	3	-5	8	14.8	15.0	-0.15	15.0	18.4	-3.43
Bonzi Wells	75	76	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.49	-6	4	-10	15.1	13.8	1.25	15.7	16.1	-0.39

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	70	71	0.74	-0.24	0.97	0.47	9	-7	16	15.2	17.6	-2.45	15.1	14.1	0.94
Ray Allen	82	81	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.50	6	-4	10	15.8	16.1	-0.33	14.7	15.5	-0.72
Vladimir Radmanovic	58	59	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.43	5	-3	8	16.4	14.8	1.65	14.4	15.6	-1.16
Luke Ridnour	66	67	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.35	7	-5	12	15.2	17.3	-2.17	14.7	15.1	-0.33
Rashard Lewis	77	78	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.49	0	2	-2	15.1	19.2	-4.12	15.4	12.2	3.20
Mateen Cleaves	28	27	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	7	-12	17.3	15.2	2.17	15.1	14.7	0.33
Danny Fortson	32	31	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	7	-12	14.7	16.4	-1.73	15.4	14.6	0.77
Damien Wilkins	30	30	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	-0.12	-2	4	-6	18.1	14.7	3.33	13.2	15.6	-2.41
Vitaly Potapenko	27	26	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.08	-5	7	-12	17.1	15.3	1.89	15.2	14.7	0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.34,0.37,0.53,0.81,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.23,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 88, CLE 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.35,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.42,0.53,0.73,0.54,0.53,0.21,0.22,0.42,1	91.8%
CHI 110, DEN 111	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.59,0.67,0.6,0.46,0.48,0.33,0.38,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.6,0.45,0.29,0.45,0.28,1	91.0%
UTA 72, MIA 74	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.6,0.46,0.38,0.25,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.47,0.68,0.61,0.65,0.58,1	90.0%