NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	99		Excitement	8.5 [207]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): +38.0%
Washington Wizards	102		Comeback	2.0 [746]		LVP	Tom Gugliotta (ATL): -27.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.00	0.07	-0.01	13	65%	0.30	4	-0.22	5	80%	0.01
Jason Collier	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	13	59%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.04
Tony Delk	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	55%	0.16	2	-0.14	2	50%	-0.02
Boris Diaw	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.07	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Obinna Ekezie	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Drobnjak	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	12	58%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Josh Childress	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	6	60%	0.05	5	-0.15	3	100%	0.02
Tom Gugliotta	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.27,-0.27	-0.09	-0.18	0.00	11	27%	-0.25	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.21,0.38	0.38	0.08	0.30	0.00	17	77%	0.59	6	-0.21	13	85%	0.07
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	10	70%	0.10	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Larry Hughes	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	17	62%	0.13	3	-0.13	8	87%	0.07
Michael Ruffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	53%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Laron Profit	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damone Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	5	50%	-0.01	3	-0.12	4	75%	0.01
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.07	-0.02	6	7%	-0.17	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	30.2	16.5	30.4	2.5	43.6	148.8
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +11.8%

WAS +34.3%

ATL -21.9%

WAS +23.8%

WAS +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	WAS	NBA	ATL	WAS	NBA
this game	16.0	13.6	15.5	102.1	104.1	104.0
season	15.6	14.7		98.1	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.1		105.5	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.5	15.0	14.6	16.9	16.0
WAS	12.5	13.2	15.4	13.1	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Collier	22	22	0.26	-0.76	1.01	-0.01	9	-12	21	14.9	16.3	-1.41	14.8	13.2	1.63
Boris Diaw	24	23	0.21	-0.71	0.91	0.03	6	-9	15	15.0	16.3	-1.27	13.7	13.5	0.19
Royal Ivey	44	45	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-2	1	15.2	16.7	-1.50	12.9	14.1	-1.27
Josh Childress	58	59	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.03	-3	0	-3	16.1	15.8	0.30	14.8	11.6	3.26
Obinna Ekezie	30	29	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.01	-7	4	-11	16.4	15.8	0.58	15.1	12.9	2.16
Predrag Drobnjak	14	15	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.06	-9	6	-15	19.4	15.4	4.01	11.1	14.0	-2.85
Al Harrington	59	60	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.50	4	-7	11	15.9	16.2	-0.35	13.4	13.7	-0.26
Tony Delk	41	42	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	1	-5	17.2	15.1	2.03	12.7	14.2	-1.55
Tom Gugliotta	75	75	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.39	-4	1	-5	15.7	17.0	-1.23	13.1	15.2	-2.12
Josh Smith	68	69	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.48	-3	0	-3	15.6	17.0	-1.38	13.5	13.7	-0.15
Tyronn Lue	50	51	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.51	-3	0	-3	16.5	15.5	1.03	13.5	13.6	-0.05

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gilbert Arenas	80	81	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.39	9	-6	15	13.0	15.9	-2.86	15.9	16.4	-0.45
Etan Thomas	70	70	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.37	6	-3	9	13.5	13.6	-0.13	16.7	14.3	2.36
Jared Jeffries	70	71	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.37	3	0	3	13.8	12.9	0.92	16.1	15.8	0.21
Larry Hughes	92	92	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.44	-2	5	-7	14.0	7.2	6.80	15.6	22.8	-7.17
Kwame Brown	67	65	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.41	-2	5	-7	12.9	15.1	-2.21	16.0	15.9	0.09
Laron Profit	31	32	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.00	5	-2	7	15.1	12.9	2.21	15.9	16.0	-0.09
Damone Brown	6	5	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.05	3	0	3	11.3	13.7	-2.36	15.0	16.1	-1.05
Steve Blake	18	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.04	-2	5	-7	14.3	13.4	0.89	15.9	16.0	-0.07
Juan Dixon	34	32	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	5	-7	12.2	14.3	-2.06	16.3	15.9	0.42
Michael Ruffin	22	21	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	6	-9	15.1	13.1	1.99	15.4	16.2	-0.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.81,0.72,0.76,0.66,0.69,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.57,0.41,0.42,0.53,0.6,0.46,0.61,0.45,0.33,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 86, HOU 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.43,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.33,0.73,1	92.6%
DEN 84, SAC 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.68,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.46,0.32,0.73,1	92.5%
HOU 83, UTA 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.73,0.8,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.67,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.78,0.68,0.46,0.32,0.58,1	91.2%