NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	91		Excitement	6.6 [528]		MVP	Damon Jones (MIA): +11.2%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	1.7 [822]		LVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): -18.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	4	112%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.03	0.00	12	60%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Pape Sow	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	57%	0.04	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Rafael Araujo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jalen Rose	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	12	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Donyell Marshall	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	0.03	7	36%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	16	50%	0.01	5	-0.16	6	67%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	0.00	15	44%	-0.09	2	-0.09	6	100%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	-0.01	10	70%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.04	0.01	5	58%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.02	6	67%	0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	13	64%	0.15	5	-0.16	16	81%	0.03
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	7	29%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.06,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	17	62%	0.08	5	-0.16	11	55%	-0.09
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	12	41%	-0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.8	33.1	15.8	25.8	1.5	33.5	137.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +47.8%

MIA +0.6%

MIA +9.1%

TOR -8.6%

MIA +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIA	NBA	TOR	MIA	NBA
this game	14.5	16.8	15.5	98.9	112.0	104.0
season	15.1	15.7		104.8	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		101.1	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.7	14.8	15.8	13.8	14.5
MIA	17.7	16.5	15.5	17.5	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafael Araujo	18	17	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-16	20	13.4	14.8	-1.33	17.0	16.7	0.25
Pape Sow	2	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-13	14	8.5	14.6	-6.14	21.0	16.7	4.35
Milt Palacio	19	18	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.03	-5	-7	2	14.4	14.5	-0.18	16.3	16.9	-0.57
Aaron Williams	19	20	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.00	-5	-7	2	16.1	14.1	2.01	17.4	16.6	0.84
Eric Williams	34	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	-7	2	15.1	14.1	1.01	16.6	16.9	-0.29
Donyell Marshall	51	50	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	-6	0	14.2	14.9	-0.71	16.4	17.3	-0.91
Morris Peterson	70	71	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-10	8	14.6	14.2	0.37	16.6	17.6	-1.01
Rafer Alston	73	74	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.18	-7	-5	-2	14.5	14.4	0.18	16.9	16.3	0.57
Chris Bosh	79	79	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.18	-8	-4	-4	14.3	15.5	-1.20	17.3	14.0	3.25
Jalen Rose	63	63	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	0	-12	14.9	13.7	1.15	16.7	16.9	-0.15
Matt Bonner	32	32	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.06	-15	3	-18	13.9	14.8	-0.98	16.2	17.1	-0.93

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	80	82	0.72	-0.22	0.95	0.14	20	-8	28	16.1	21.1	-4.93	14.5	14.4	0.12
Eddie Jones	77	77	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.13	15	-3	18	16.4	18.7	-2.32	14.6	14.2	0.37
Shaquille O'Neal	69	69	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-3	18	16.6	17.5	-0.97	14.6	14.1	0.51
Udonis Haslem	68	67	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.12	14	-2	16	16.5	17.5	-1.01	14.9	13.4	1.58
Damon Jones	64	64	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.04	14	-2	16	16.4	17.6	-1.22	14.4	14.7	-0.34
Keyon Dooling	28	28	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.11	-2	14	-16	17.6	16.4	1.22	14.7	14.4	0.34
Michael Doleac	28	28	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.08	-6	18	-24	17.5	16.5	0.96	12.7	15.3	-2.58
Shandon Anderson	29	29	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.04	-3	15	-18	18.9	15.8	3.07	15.0	14.3	0.66
Steven Smith	17	16	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.07	-7	19	-26	18.9	16.3	2.56	14.1	14.6	-0.47

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.76,0.78,0.9,0.97,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 84, MIN 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.66,0.52,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.59,0.71,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.99,1	93.6%
LAL 105, POR 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.65,0.73,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.99,1	93.4%
POR 85, VAN 95	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.65,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.53,0.71,0.83,0.81,0.95,1,1,1	93.1%