NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	74		Excitement	4.3 [985]		MVP	DerMarr Johnson (DEN): +3.5%
Denver Nuggets	97		Comeback	2.0 [836]		LVP	Al Harrington (ATL): -14.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Collier	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Obinna Ekezie	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	67%	0.03	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.01
Royal Ivey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Drobnjak	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Boris Diaw	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	8	33%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	7	56%	0.03	5	-0.10	2	50%	-0.00
Josh Childress	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	8	40%	-0.07	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Tom Gugliotta	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	7	29%	0.00	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	7	47%	-0.02	4	-0.09	5	80%	0.00
Al Harrington	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.16,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.02	0.00	12	50%	-0.05	4	-0.09	12	67%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	71%	0.03	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	55%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Pope	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Flores	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	9	70%	0.07	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	16	62%	0.11	6	-0.14	5	100%	0.03
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0.04	5	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	11	50%	0.03	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.00	10	46%	-0.02	5	-0.11	4	25%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.1	2.5	30.3	16.4	27.3	1.4	29.3	135.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +33.8%

ATL -1.4%

DEN +9.1%

DEN +4.8%

DEN +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DEN	NBA	ATL	DEN	NBA
this game	17.8	14.2	15.5	81.3	109.0	104.0
season	15.6	14.8		98.1	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.1		102.3	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.0	17.6	20.0	17.9	17.8
DEN	11.1	15.8	13.3	17.3	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Collier	11	13	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.05	0	-23	23	14.8	18.2	-3.36	14.6	14.1	0.50
Royal Ivey	8	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-24	25	19.1	17.6	1.49	15.5	14.1	1.44
Obinna Ekezie	43	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.26	-17	-6	-11	18.0	17.5	0.53	14.6	13.8	0.80
Predrag Drobnjak	23	24	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.07	-6	-17	11	19.4	17.2	2.23	11.3	15.3	-3.97
Tom Gugliotta	56	57	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.05	-11	-12	1	17.8	17.7	0.18	13.4	15.7	-2.34
Josh Smith	63	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.12	-14	-9	-5	17.8	17.6	0.18	15.0	12.2	2.82
Boris Diaw	45	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.30	-21	-2	-19	17.2	18.3	-1.04	13.1	15.3	-2.18
Tyronn Lue	60	57	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-16	9	17.3	18.7	-1.48	14.9	12.9	1.96
Josh Childress	79	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.24	-20	-3	-17	17.2	21.8	-4.68	14.5	12.4	2.12
Al Harrington	67	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.11	-20	-3	-17	18.8	15.0	3.76	14.5	13.5	0.93

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	42	43	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.20	27	-4	31	15.1	13.4	1.76	19.6	16.1	3.52
Andre Miller	51	56	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.17	22	1	21	14.9	13.2	1.71	18.4	16.8	1.62
DerMarr Johnson	41	43	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.07	15	8	7	14.1	14.3	-0.22	17.6	17.9	-0.27
Marcus Camby	66	69	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.19	18	5	13	13.8	15.3	-1.56	18.1	16.9	1.19
Carmelo Anthony	56	58	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.04	12	11	1	15.6	11.9	3.67	18.8	15.9	2.97
Greg Buckner	43	42	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.02	5	18	-13	13.2	15.1	-1.90	16.5	18.8	-2.27
Earl Boykins	46	46	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.17	11	12	-1	14.2	14.1	0.10	17.3	18.2	-0.85
Francisco Elson	34	33	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.13	-1	24	-25	15.6	13.3	2.26	17.4	18.0	-0.59
Bryon Russell	34	33	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.12	7	16	-9	12.2	15.4	-3.16	15.6	19.0	-3.35
Mark Pope	8	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	22	-21	13.9	14.2	-0.35	16.1	17.9	-1.80
Luis Flores	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	21	-19	13.9	14.2	-0.35	14.7	18.0	-3.31
Kenyon Martin	16	17	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	27	-31	10.6	15.0	-4.35	17.6	17.8	-0.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 84, CHA 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.95,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.3%
DAL 102, DET 115	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.37,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.9,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
DEN 81, DAL 92	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.74,0.83,0.89,0.86,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.0%