NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	104		Excitement	5.9 [670]		MVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): +8.2%
Sacramento Kings	114		Comeback	1.2 [1121]		LVP	Antoine Walker (ATL): -12.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	20	60%	0.15	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Obinna Ekezie	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	3	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.02	0.03	15	54%	0.03	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Predrag Drobnjak	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Josh Childress	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	43%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Donta Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	42%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Tyronn Lue	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.03	11	59%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	4	10%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Antoine Walker	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	20	52%	0.02	7	-0.15	4	50%	-0.03

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	18	62%	0.18	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.02	20	62%	0.09	2	-0.04	8	100%	0.04
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.02	-0.04	6	62%	0.07	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	12	52%	0.04	2	-0.01	7	86%	0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	15	62%	0.07	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	10	43%	0.02	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.4	24.3	15.4	31.0	1.8	27.3	125.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +23.9%

SAC +9.9%

SAC +5.4%

SAC +4.2%

SAC +6.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	SAC	NBA	ATL	SAC	NBA
this game	13.9	14.9	15.5	104.0	114.0	104.0
season	15.6	14.7		98.1	108.1
opponent	15.6	15.1		106.4	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.4	15.8	11.9	13.8	13.9
SAC	12.3	15.5	15.3	16.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	73	73	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.24	5	-15	20	13.1	16.1	-2.99	15.6	13.0	2.61
Obinna Ekezie	22	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-11	12	12.3	14.4	-2.07	16.0	14.6	1.37
Donta Smith	2	3	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-5	0	4.0	14.1	-10.13	17.3	14.8	2.54
Josh Childress	55	57	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.19	0	-10	10	14.6	13.1	1.53	15.4	14.2	1.24
Al Harrington	88	87	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-9	8	14.3	11.4	2.86	14.9	14.5	0.47
Tyronn Lue	66	68	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-5	0	15.2	11.6	3.59	14.8	15.0	-0.15
Tony Delk	45	43	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	0	-10	13.1	14.6	-1.53	14.2	15.4	-1.24
Boris Diaw	41	38	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.04	-13	3	-16	13.1	14.5	-1.37	14.2	15.3	-1.11
Antoine Walker	81	83	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.18	-6	-4	-2	14.5	11.4	3.16	14.7	15.9	-1.29
Predrag Drobnjak	27	27	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.11	-16	6	-22	13.5	14.1	-0.61	13.4	15.4	-2.00

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Webber	82	83	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.06	17	-7	24	14.6	16.2	-1.58	13.4	16.5	-3.13
Mike Bibby	81	80	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	-3	16	14.6	16.1	-1.46	13.6	15.3	-1.77
Matt Barnes	75	75	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.01	15	-5	20	14.4	16.4	-1.99	12.9	16.9	-3.99
Cuttino Mobley	88	88	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	7	-4	15.1	13.5	1.56	14.8	7.7	7.02
Brad Miller	80	79	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	6	-2	14.8	15.1	-0.29	14.9	10.2	4.73
Maurice Evans	37	37	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.21	2	8	-6	15.4	14.5	0.89	13.9	13.9	0.03
Darius Songaila	38	38	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.18	-1	11	-12	15.6	14.4	1.19	13.0	14.5	-1.46
Eddie House	19	20	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	13	-16	16.1	14.6	1.46	15.3	13.6	1.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.7,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.83,0.89,1,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 85, DET 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.81,0.89,0.83,0.79,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.99,1,1,1	95.4%
OKC 79, LAL 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.98,1,1	94.7%
PHI 79, NYK 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.77,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.66,0.63,0.7,0.79,0.9,0.85,0.94,0.99,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.99,1	94.7%