NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	103		Excitement	7.6 [344]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +16.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves	100		Comeback	1.9 [309]		LVP	Raef LaFrentz (BOS): -19.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.15,0.16	0.07	0.09	-0.01	16	67%	0.23	2	-0.07	16	94%	0.11
Gary Payton	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	18	58%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Kendrick Perkins	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	3	80%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Marcus Banks	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	4	56%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mark Blount	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Walter McCarty	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	11	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jiri Welsch	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	10	35%	-0.07	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.01	6	70%	0.13	0	0.00	8	100%	0.06
Michael Olowokandi	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	16	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.05	0.03	6	60%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.11
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.01	18	54%	0.07	2	-0.16	3	100%	0.02
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	9	55%	0.01	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	10	50%	0.01	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	14	36%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.5	28.3	15.7	26.9	1.5	37.3	137.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +7.7%

BOS +16.5%

BOS +8.2%

BOS +12.3%

BOS +5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIN	NBA	BOS	MIN	NBA
this game	15.1	16.3	15.5	112.0	109.9	104.0
season	14.4	15.8		104.7	106.2
opponent	15.9	16.0		104.6	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.3	14.8	15.7	15.7	15.1
MIN	16.3	18.6	14.3	16.3	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ricky Davis	59	59	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.24	11	-8	19	15.3	14.8	0.55	17.4	14.5	2.89
Raef LaFrentz	72	70	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.26	9	-6	15	14.7	16.8	-2.18	15.6	18.7	-3.02
Gary Payton	72	71	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.32	4	-1	5	14.7	16.8	-2.18	15.4	19.6	-4.24
Paul Pierce	71	70	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.35	0	3	-3	15.3	14.7	0.55	15.2	20.0	-4.76
Mark Blount	57	59	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.02	8	-5	13	14.4	16.3	-1.89	16.1	16.7	-0.58
Walter McCarty	33	33	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.33	-7	10	-17	17.4	13.9	3.47	17.2	15.9	1.27
Jiri Welsch	17	17	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.13	-1	4	-5	15.5	15.1	0.40	21.2	15.2	5.95
Tony Allen	39	37	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.19	-4	7	-11	13.7	16.2	-2.43	14.4	17.7	-3.35
Marcus Banks	20	20	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.10	-1	4	-5	16.8	14.7	2.18	19.6	15.4	4.24
Kendrick Perkins	20	19	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.15	-4	7	-11	16.6	14.7	1.93	18.6	15.7	2.83

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Thomas	4	4	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.05	0	-3	3	17.5	16.3	1.21	12.7	15.2	-2.50
Anthony Carter	4	4	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.09	-2	-1	-1	14.7	16.4	-1.66	15.5	15.1	0.37
Troy Hudson	24	23	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.09	-1	-2	1	18.8	15.4	3.39	17.5	14.4	3.12
Latrell Sprewell	58	59	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.31	6	-9	15	16.3	16.4	-0.08	14.4	16.5	-2.14
Eddie Griffin	9	8	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.01	-7	4	-11	15.4	16.4	-0.99	18.1	14.9	3.27
Michael Olowokandi	61	64	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.19	-2	-1	-1	16.9	15.2	1.65	14.7	16.2	-1.54
Trenton Hassell	39	39	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.18	-3	0	-3	15.0	17.3	-2.30	16.0	14.5	1.49
Fred Hoiberg	47	46	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.36	2	-5	7	17.1	15.5	1.54	16.2	14.1	2.15
Kevin Garnett	78	79	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	1	-5	15.6	20.6	-4.99	15.0	16.2	-1.18
Sam Cassell	63	65	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.42	0	-3	3	15.5	18.2	-2.76	14.3	17.2	-2.89
Wally Szczerbiak	68	69	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.38	-4	1	-5	17.0	14.4	2.55	15.0	15.5	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.28,0.1,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 80, SAS 75	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.43,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.16,0	93.6%
PHX 88, DET 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.05,0.03,0.16,0	92.3%
UTA 97, LAC 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.63,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.34,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.2,0.36,0.15,0.05,0	92.2%