NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	106		Excitement	7.1 [427]		MVP	Bobby Simmons (LAC): +34.4%
Memphis Grizzlies	103		Comeback	19.2 [27]		LVP	Stromile Swift (MEM): -17.7%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Simmons	0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.35,0.34	0.18	0.17	0.01	12	84%	0.34	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Marko Jaric	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.09,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.00	14	78%	0.22	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.02
Rick Brunson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.06	0.00	3	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Quinton Ross	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	5	43%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.02
Elton Brand	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	13	55%	0.08	4	-0.11	5	100%	0.03
Chris Kaman	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	7	62%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Zeljko Rebraca	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.14,-0.14,-0.05	-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	6	70%	0.11	4	-0.16	8	75%	-0.08
Mikki Moore	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.08	-0.00	5	54%	0.10	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	12	54%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Burks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	7	56%	0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	9	64%	0.06	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.08	-0.06	0.03	11	68%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.04	0.02	9	65%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Humphrey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.00	-0.12	0.02	10	64%	0.07	3	-0.21	5	60%	-0.01
Stromile Swift	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.06	-0.01	11	38%	-0.14	1	-0.04	12	75%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.7	26.3	16.4	29.9	0.3	39.0	139.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +53.6%

LAC +10.1%

LAC +8.3%

MEM -21.2%

MEM -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	MEM	NBA	LAC	MEM	NBA
this game	15.8	16.2	15.5	117.8	114.4	104.0
season	16.0	16.4		103.0	103.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		101.9	103.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	17.0	17.9	15.4	13.2	15.8
MEM	15.8	16.4	16.6	16.1	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zeljko Rebraca	53	52	0.82	-0.32	1.13	0.41	14	-11	25	14.6	17.5	-2.86	17.4	14.6	2.84
Rick Brunson	55	54	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.40	11	-8	19	14.7	17.5	-2.89	17.3	14.6	2.78
Bobby Simmons	77	77	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.43	10	-7	17	15.9	15.0	0.91	16.0	17.4	-1.36
Marko Jaric	79	79	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.45	6	-3	9	15.3	19.0	-3.67	15.7	20.0	-4.30
Elton Brand	76	71	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.31	7	-4	11	16.1	14.1	1.94	16.8	14.1	2.68
Mikki Moore	12	15	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.01	-4	7	-11	17.1	15.6	1.51	15.5	16.4	-0.83
Quinton Ross	56	58	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	0.06	-15	18	-33	16.4	14.8	1.53	15.2	18.1	-2.86
Chris Kaman	42	44	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	-0.02	-14	17	-31	17.6	14.1	3.50	15.4	17.0	-1.64

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Burks	24	26	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.10	0	-3	3	17.6	15.7	1.86	15.4	15.9	-0.55
Ryan Humphrey	6	7	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-1	-1	18.7	16.0	2.62	14.3	15.9	-1.62
Mike Miller	58	60	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.25	3	-6	9	16.2	16.2	-0.04	14.5	18.4	-3.88
Dahntay Jones	44	40	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	1	-5	15.9	16.5	-0.66	16.4	15.3	1.12
Stromile Swift	64	64	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.23	1	-4	5	17.0	14.4	2.58	17.7	10.9	6.83
Brian Cardinal	44	44	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.22	-1	-2	1	15.7	16.7	-0.92	14.4	17.1	-2.77
Shane Battier	78	78	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.43	-3	0	-3	16.3	15.5	0.83	16.3	12.2	4.07
Jason Williams	66	64	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.51	-3	0	-3	15.7	17.6	-1.86	15.9	15.4	0.55
Lorenzen Wright	66	67	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.48	-6	3	-9	15.7	17.7	-1.97	15.1	17.7	-2.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.7,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.78,0.68,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 101, CLE 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.72,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.91,0.81,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.72,0.78,0.42,0	91.6%
GSW 82, POR 78	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.67,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.62,0.72,0.57,0.15,0	91.5%
MEM 91, UTA 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.8,0.75,0.82,0.91,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.71,0.32,0.09,0	90.7%