NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	116		Excitement	9.9 [74]		MVP	Marcus Camby (DEN): +37.4%
Seattle SuperSonics	110		Comeback	35.6 [25]		LVP	Ray Allen (SEA): -47.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Camby	0.37	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37	0.09	0.29	0.01	19	62%	0.40	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.06
Earl Boykins	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.2	0.04	0.17	0.01	11	62%	0.22	1	-0.03	7	86%	-0.03
Bryon Russell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	-0.02	0.10	-0.00	8	39%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Miller	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.13,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.00	21	60%	0.15	1	-0.10	8	100%	0.07
Greg Buckner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney White	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	0.01	-0.11	0.01	4	60%	-0.12	0	0.00	7	100%	0.06
Carmelo Anthony	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	11	38%	-0.09	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Francisco Elson	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	11	29%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.10	0.17	0.01	12	77%	0.32	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.08	0.01	19	62%	0.25	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02
Danny Fortson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	7	76%	0.09	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.00
Jerome James	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	1	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Reggie Evans	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	1	25%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	17	50%	-0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	0.03	13	31%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.28,-0.28,-0.32,-0.41,-0.48,-0.48,-0.48,-0.48,-0.48,-0.48	-0.48	-0.21	-0.24	0.03	22	34%	-0.28	4	-0.19	6	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.1	1.7	27.2	16.6	23.0	2.0	35.9	0.2	19.2	150.9
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	1.9	17.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +10.8%

DEN +17.2%

SEA -18.4%

DEN +31.9%

DEN +8.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SEA	NBA	DEN	SEA	NBA
this game	15.8	15.3	15.5	113.7	107.8	104.0
season	14.8	16.5		103.8	109.5
opponent	15.6	15.6		107.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	15.3	17.7	14.5	18.0	12.5	15.8
SEA	15.3	14.4	17.4	16.3	11.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Elson	69	72	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.59	6	0	6	15.8	16.0	-0.20	14.7	16.8	-2.02
Marcus Camby	91	91	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.32	15	-9	24	15.5	18.2	-2.63	15.5	14.4	1.10
Andre Miller	91	91	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.23	17	-11	28	15.6	17.5	-1.82	15.4	14.6	0.79
Bryon Russell	56	54	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.46	-1	7	-8	15.9	15.7	0.25	14.6	16.2	-1.59
Greg Buckner	47	48	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.16	10	-4	14	15.6	16.0	-0.40	16.2	14.6	1.59
Carmelo Anthony	61	61	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.12	6	0	6	16.2	15.3	0.94	16.0	14.3	1.67
DerMarr Johnson	27	27	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	10	-14	13.5	16.7	-3.15	15.3	15.3	-0.01
Earl Boykins	51	50	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.11	-6	12	-18	16.5	15.1	1.43	15.1	15.5	-0.40
Rodney White	17	16	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	0.02	-13	19	-32	19.1	15.2	3.87	14.9	15.4	-0.48

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	23	23	0.30	-0.81	1.11	0.04	9	-15	24	12.8	16.1	-3.31	18.8	15.0	3.81
Danny Fortson	48	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.37	8	-14	22	15.2	15.4	-0.22	17.2	14.5	2.68
Vladimir Radmanovic	79	79	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.45	7	-13	20	14.2	19.2	-5.00	16.2	14.5	1.75
Reggie Evans	41	40	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.08	-11	5	-16	16.9	14.3	2.65	15.2	16.2	-1.04
Luke Ridnour	67	67	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.05	-7	1	-8	15.9	14.2	1.74	15.1	17.3	-2.21
Jerome James	23	23	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.13	-13	7	-20	19.2	14.2	5.00	14.5	16.2	-1.75
Antonio Daniels	64	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.42	2	-8	10	14.8	16.3	-1.47	16.2	15.3	0.87
Ray Allen	88	87	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.24	-11	5	-16	15.1	16.8	-1.67	15.7	16.5	-0.74
Rashard Lewis	77	77	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.33	-14	8	-22	15.5	14.8	0.77	14.9	18.7	-3.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.61,0.68,0.6,0.72,0.73,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.33,0.92,0.46,0.39,0.21,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 99, NYK 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.83,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.76,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.46,0.36,0.16,0.02,0.01,0	89.3%
IND 116, SAC 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.77,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.55,0.43,0.91,0.46,0.53,0.21,0.32,0.16,0	89.0%
CHA 104, TOR 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.56,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.82,0.85,0.75,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.62,0.68,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.61,0.46,0.32,0.73,0.54,0.31,0.37,0.23,0.16,0	88.9%