NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	114		Excitement	9.5 [101]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): +20.0%
Washington Wizards	117		Comeback	20.6 [86]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): -25.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Fred Hoiberg	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	5	90%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.00	5	83%	0.16	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Carter	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.04	-0.02	9	59%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Michael Olowokandi	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Griffin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	12	54%	0.10	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Latrell Sprewell	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,-0.02,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	14	53%	0.03	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.04
Ervin Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	9	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.25	-0.05	-0.20	0.00	7	43%	-0.15	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.25	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,-0.25	-0.02	-0.23	-0.00	18	53%	-0.20	2	-0.06	11	100%	0.11

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.2	0.20	0.07	0.10	-0.03	26	62%	0.32	4	-0.12	12	92%	0.14
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.01	6	81%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.06	0.01	18	62%	0.07	3	-0.11	9	89%	0.04
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	6	37%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21	-0.21	-0.06	-0.16	-0.00	9	33%	-0.21	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.23	-0.23	-0.01	-0.21	0.01	22	48%	-0.21	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.16

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	23.7	15.6	27.6	2.4	43.3	139.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN -8.0%

WAS +6.4%

WAS +45.3%

WAS +4.1%

WAS +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	WAS	NBA	MIN	WAS	NBA
this game	15.5	15.0	15.5	120.0	124.5	104.0
season	15.8	14.7		106.2	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.9		105.5	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	14.6	19.8	12.2	16.4	15.5
WAS	15.4	16.2	15.0	13.6	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred Hoiberg	23	25	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.11	12	-15	27	18.7	14.4	4.21	16.4	14.5	1.95
Michael Olowokandi	27	28	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.06	10	-13	23	15.2	15.6	-0.34	18.2	13.7	4.51
Troy Hudson	47	48	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.27	-7	4	-11	16.0	14.9	1.10	14.7	15.3	-0.53
Trenton Hassell	56	55	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.52	16	-19	35	15.7	15.1	0.57	15.2	14.7	0.50
Ervin Johnson	7	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.10	-7	4	-11	17.7	15.3	2.43	11.4	15.3	-3.87
Eddie Griffin	55	51	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.15	1	-4	5	16.0	14.8	1.19	15.2	14.8	0.45
Anthony Carter	48	46	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.68	4	-7	11	14.9	16.0	-1.10	15.3	14.7	0.53
Kevin Garnett	78	77	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.34	-8	5	-13	14.7	18.9	-4.24	14.4	18.0	-3.65
Latrell Sprewell	65	63	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.29	-16	13	-29	13.9	18.8	-4.88	14.1	16.9	-2.82
Wally Szczerbiak	69	70	-0.85	0.35	-1.21	-0.27	-20	17	-37	16.0	14.1	1.91	14.8	15.5	-0.66

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Jeffries	74	77	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.65	7	-4	11	14.5	16.7	-2.21	15.1	16.9	-1.83
Gilbert Arenas	89	90	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.34	10	-7	17	14.8	18.6	-3.79	15.2	19.6	-4.37
Antawn Jamison	86	86	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.39	6	-3	9	14.7	18.2	-3.54	14.9	20.4	-5.50
Larry Hughes	86	87	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.38	5	-2	7	14.7	18.7	-4.09	15.0	20.0	-4.95
Jarvis Hayes	41	42	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.45	-2	5	-7	15.0	15.0	0.02	15.9	15.1	0.83
Michael Ruffin	15	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.08	-3	6	-9	18.2	14.4	3.79	20.1	14.6	5.55
Anthony Peeler	13	13	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.11	-9	12	-21	18.7	14.4	4.27	19.8	14.8	5.08
Brendan Haywood	66	65	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.33	1	2	-1	15.2	14.6	0.63	15.2	16.1	-0.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.39,0.19,0.1,0.06,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 100, SEA 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.78,0.79,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.53,0.45,0.6,0.4,0.25,0.11,0.17,0.15,1	91.1%
IND 93, NYK 94	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.42,0.59,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.12,0.22,0.58,1	91.0%
ORL 97, MEM 105	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.68,0.7,0.6,0.55,0.67,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.56,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.42,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.32,0.07,0.22,0.27,1	90.2%