NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	81		Excitement	7.8 [311]		MVP	Peja Stojakovic (SAC): +21.6%
Sacramento Kings	86		Comeback	1.5 [909]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -33.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	5	55%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Brent Barry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.09	1	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	7	29%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	16	50%	0.08	2	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	0.06	-0.05	0.03	10	60%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	8	12%	-0.11	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.29	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.17	-0.14	-0.02	9	35%	-0.05	6	-0.24	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.34	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.35,-0.35,-0.34,-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.01	17	35%	-0.25	3	-0.08	6	33%	-0.04

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.21,0.21,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.07	-0.04	20	67%	0.27	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.08,0.06	0.06	-0.07	0.10	-0.03	15	52%	0.18	5	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	60%	0.03	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.03	-0.00	6	33%	0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	0.01	9	46%	-0.01	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.05
Chris Webber	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.25,-0.28,-0.28,-0.34,-0.4,-0.4,-0.33,-0.32	-0.32	-0.16	-0.15	0.01	15	44%	-0.05	7	-0.27	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.0	27.3	15.5	25.3	2.5	34.5	129.4
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +61.5%

SAS -10.2%

SAC +12.2%

SAS -12.8%

SAS -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SAC	NBA	SAS	SAC	NBA
this game	15.6	15.0	15.5	86.2	91.5	104.0
season	16.3	14.7		105.8	108.1
opponent	15.6	15.6		106.4	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.4	15.8	17.6	15.1	15.6
SAC	15.0	17.7	14.5	13.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	46	45	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.04	5	-10	15	15.9	15.4	0.47	16.6	13.5	3.05
Tony Massenburg	1	2	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-3	1	0.0	15.8	-15.82	4.0	15.2	-11.23
Brent Barry	25	23	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.15	2	-7	9	15.7	15.6	0.10	14.7	15.1	-0.39
Beno Udrih	33	34	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.30	6	-11	17	16.0	15.5	0.54	16.4	14.2	2.23
Devin Brown	29	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-5	5	16.2	15.4	0.76	17.4	13.9	3.49
Malik Rose	21	20	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.11	-4	-1	-3	15.9	15.6	0.27	11.8	15.8	-3.99
Robert Horry	49	50	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.36	0	-5	5	15.7	15.6	0.09	15.7	14.2	1.43
Bruce Bowen	64	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-1	-3	15.1	16.8	-1.69	14.3	16.6	-2.30
Tony Parker	61	60	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.05	-11	6	-17	15.5	16.0	-0.54	14.2	16.4	-2.23
Manu Ginobili	70	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	3	-11	15.9	14.9	0.98	14.7	15.8	-1.08
Tim Duncan	71	71	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.24	-9	4	-13	15.6	15.7	-0.12	14.7	15.9	-1.17

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Webber	72	71	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.32	14	-9	23	14.0	18.1	-4.11	15.4	16.3	-0.93
Peja Stojakovic	77	79	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.32	12	-7	19	14.4	17.6	-3.24	15.8	14.6	1.25
Brad Miller	77	76	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.20	10	-5	15	14.8	15.8	-1.02	15.8	15.1	0.67
Mike Bibby	79	79	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.44	-2	7	-9	15.0	14.9	0.07	15.6	16.1	-0.58
Doug Christie	64	64	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.20	6	-1	7	14.3	16.4	-2.07	14.9	17.2	-2.33
Kevin Martin	42	42	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.10	5	0	5	15.1	14.9	0.28	16.4	15.1	1.32
Darius Songaila	27	28	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.09	-4	9	-13	16.8	14.3	2.56	16.9	15.1	1.77
Maurice Evans	21	19	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.03	-7	12	-19	18.2	14.1	4.18	15.7	15.6	0.11
Greg Ostertag	11	12	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.07	-9	14	-23	19.2	14.4	4.75	13.8	15.9	-2.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.62,0.52,0.72,0.77,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.78,0.9,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 91, PHI 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.85,0.7,0.66,0.57,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.97,1,1	93.1%
PHI 90, LAL 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.9,0.97,1,1	92.7%
MIL 88, NJN 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.71,0.7,0.76,0.91,0.9,0.72,0.9,0.98,1	92.6%