NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	89		Excitement	3.4 [1150]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +6.5%
Denver Nuggets	75		Comeback	1.0 [658]		LVP	Nene (DEN): -14.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.04	11	62%	0.11	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Malik Rose	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	6	69%	0.07	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	15	70%	0.11	5	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Mike Wilks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Massenburg	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Beno Udrih	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	8	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	-0.06	14	36%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	10	45%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	22	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	9	67%	-0.02
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	13	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.00	-0.05	6	17%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.16	-0.01	-0.03	10	25%	-0.08	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.20	-0.00	-0.05	10	27%	-0.08	4	-0.07	6	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.4	29.4	16.4	23.4	2.3	30.5	131.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +35.4%

SAS +7.2%

SAS +5.8%

DEN -0.2%

SAS +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	17.2	14.8	15.5	98.9	83.3	104.0
season	16.3	14.8		105.8	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.6		102.3	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.0	16.7	17.9	19.4	17.2
DEN	15.0	14.0	15.6	14.7	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	66	66	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.20	27	-13	40	16.6	18.8	-2.27	15.4	13.3	2.10
Manu Ginobili	58	59	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.07	18	-4	22	15.8	19.6	-3.72	15.3	14.0	1.22
Tony Parker	64	63	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.02	15	-1	16	16.5	18.7	-2.15	14.9	14.8	0.08
Bruce Bowen	62	61	0.41	0.09	0.33	-0.11	18	-4	22	16.5	18.6	-2.14	16.0	12.3	3.72
Robert Horry	31	31	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	6	2	19.3	16.1	3.24	13.9	15.3	-1.47
Brent Barry	51	52	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.13	1	13	-12	17.9	16.2	1.70	13.4	16.8	-3.34
Malik Rose	38	40	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	12	-10	17.3	17.1	0.26	15.1	14.6	0.48
Beno Udrih	22	23	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.02	2	12	-10	17.7	17.0	0.68	14.8	14.9	-0.07
Rasho Nesterovic	43	41	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.21	-6	20	-26	15.8	18.4	-2.68	14.4	15.2	-0.77
Mike Wilks	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	17	-20	24.2	16.8	7.41	14.7	14.8	-0.09
Tony Massenburg	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	17	-20	31.5	16.8	14.66	14.5	14.8	-0.34
Devin Brown	15	15	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.20	-7	21	-28	21.8	16.2	5.56	14.7	14.9	-0.12

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney White	29	30	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.27	10	-24	34	13.9	15.3	-1.33	18.2	16.7	1.50
DerMarr Johnson	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-16	18	14.7	14.8	-0.09	24.2	16.8	7.41
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	8	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-16	18	13.9	14.9	-1.05	20.6	16.8	3.77
Francisco Elson	22	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-11	8	13.9	15.1	-1.22	19.7	16.4	3.32
Bryon Russell	19	19	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.10	-7	-7	0	16.8	14.3	2.48	19.7	16.5	3.26
Kenyon Martin	11	12	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.08	-9	-5	-4	16.5	14.6	1.85	15.5	17.4	-1.92
Earl Boykins	61	62	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-15	16	13.6	17.5	-3.91	18.0	15.2	2.78
Nene	56	54	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-9	4	14.4	15.6	-1.26	15.6	19.5	-3.94
Carmelo Anthony	75	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.03	-10	-4	-6	15.0	13.9	1.16	17.2	17.2	-0.03
Greg Buckner	36	36	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.11	-18	4	-22	15.8	14.2	1.57	15.6	18.2	-2.59
Marcus Camby	65	65	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.00	-16	2	-18	15.7	12.7	2.98	16.2	19.8	-3.65
Andre Miller	64	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.03	-17	3	-20	14.8	14.8	0.04	16.9	17.8	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.22,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.26,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.24,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 110, OKC 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.25,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
DAL 108, MEM 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.36,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.15,0.24,0.19,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
PHI 83, BOS 67	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.24,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.16,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%