NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	96		Excitement	7.9 [247]		MVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): +14.5%
Miami Heat	102		Comeback	1.3 [878]		LVP	Caron Butler (MIA): -16.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12	0.02	0.11	0.01	15	60%	0.23	2	-0.11	10	80%	0.02
Doug Christie	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	14	57%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Darius Songaila	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Vlade Divac	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Peja Stojakovic	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	13	45%	-0.06	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Rodney Buford	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	21	45%	-0.05	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.00	0.15	0.00	7	68%	0.19	2	-0.04	11	82%	0.03
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.00	15	57%	0.15	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04	0.04	-0.03	0.04	-0.03	21	45%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	18	62%	0.10	4	-0.12	12	58%	-0.05
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.01	8	38%	-0.09	0	0.00	10	80%	0.02
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.03	0.00	10	33%	-0.11	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.0	25.5	15.7	27.5	2.6	39.6	138.2
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.4%

MIA +8.5%

MIA +15.0%

SAC -4.9%

MIA +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIA	NBA	SAC	MIA	NBA
this game	13.8	14.7	15.7	96.0	100.0	100.5
season	14.7	16.2		106.9	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.6		98.8	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.9	13.7	13.3	14.2	13.8
MIA	12.8	15.1	16.7	14.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vlade Divac	53	54	0.22	-0.72	0.95	-0.13	12	-18	30	13.8	13.8	0.03	15.7	13.6	2.16
Darius Songaila	9	11	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-5	4	13.3	13.8	-0.49	12.7	15.0	-2.24
Rodney Buford	21	21	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.03	-5	-1	-4	12.6	14.1	-1.53	13.9	14.9	-1.03
Anthony Peeler	32	32	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.01	-7	1	-8	13.0	14.2	-1.19	12.8	15.6	-2.74
Peja Stojakovic	80	82	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.28	-1	-5	4	13.9	13.2	0.73	14.8	14.2	0.59
Doug Christie	83	85	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.29	-3	-3	0	14.0	12.9	1.08	14.9	13.9	0.94
Mike Bibby	89	91	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-2	-2	13.6	15.2	-1.58	14.7	15.3	-0.61
Chris Webber	68	68	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.25	-9	3	-12	14.0	13.2	0.83	14.3	15.6	-1.34
Brad Miller	65	66	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.31	-12	6	-18	14.2	13.1	1.11	15.6	13.1	2.49

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasual Butler	64	63	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.25	15	-9	24	14.5	15.2	-0.73	14.3	12.9	1.37
Udonis Haslem	69	68	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.31	10	-4	14	14.8	14.7	0.09	13.8	13.8	-0.05
Rafer Alston	98	96	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.30	10	-4	14	15.0	8.7	6.22	13.9	10.7	3.16
Lamar Odom	96	94	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.33	3	3	0	15.0	10.5	4.49	13.7	14.7	-0.94
Eddie Jones	77	74	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.36	-7	13	-20	14.4	15.8	-1.48	13.2	15.4	-2.17
Caron Butler	67	67	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	6	-6	15.0	14.1	0.93	13.7	13.8	-0.10
Brian Grant	39	38	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	7	-8	14.0	15.2	-1.13	13.9	13.7	0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.72,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 83, HOU 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.6,0.58,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.47,0.46,0.69,0.79,0.97,1,1	93.6%
GSW 79, SAS 87	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.75,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.71,0.86,0.97,1	92.1%
DET 101, DAL 106	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.7,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.7,0.73,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.73,0.62,0.72,0.94,0.98,1	92.1%