NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	102		Excitement	10.9 [25]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +23.9%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	2.2 [378]		LVP	Ben Wallace (DET): -38.3%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.10	0.14	0.00	13	70%	0.27	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.08
Richard Hamilton	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,0.15	-0.06	0.19	-0.01	18	46%	0.24	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Elden Campbell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.06,0.04,0.19,0.12,0.12,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	14	49%	-0.00	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.03
Chucky Atkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	8	31%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07	0.07	-0.12	0.02	17	62%	0.09	1	-0.16	5	80%	0.01
Bob Sura	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	2	17%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Mehmet Okur	-0.11	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	10	30%	-0.11	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Ben Wallace	-0.38	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.38,-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.01	8	30%	-0.32	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.06	0.01	8	89%	0.18	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0.09,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.08	0.08	-0.06	0.14	-0.00	8	56%	0.31	4	-0.23	2	100%	0.09
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	0.01	14	53%	0.05	4	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.13	-0.13	0.02	-0.16	-0.00	12	54%	-0.10	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.08	-0.13	0.01	14	47%	-0.16	2	-0.06	10	80%	0.02
Eddie Jones	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.33	-0.33	-0.03	-0.30	0.01	17	53%	-0.12	4	-0.21	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.1	2.7	34.5	16.5	26.3	2.5	30.4	1.7	15.7	155.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	2.0	17.4	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +2.6%

DET +0.7%

DET +28.5%

DET +10.1%

DET +8.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	16.9	16.7	15.7	109.7	104.2	100.5
season	16.2	16.2		99.2	99.3
opponent	15.9	16.0		98.8	92.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	14.1	16.7	16.8	18.6	21.6	16.9
MIA	18.4	14.0	16.7	18.4	15.9	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	77	80	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.56	8	-6	14	17.1	16.0	1.14	16.5	17.9	-1.47
Chauncey Billups	58	59	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.61	1	1	0	17.6	15.9	1.75	16.5	17.0	-0.47
Ben Wallace	69	71	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.54	0	2	-2	17.8	14.5	3.24	16.7	16.8	-0.07
Tayshaun Prince	76	77	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.39	-2	4	-6	16.8	17.4	-0.57	16.9	15.9	0.95
Corliss Williamson	53	53	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.31	0	2	-2	17.4	16.4	0.96	17.6	15.7	1.91
Mehmet Okur	57	59	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.07	8	-6	14	15.4	19.3	-3.89	16.3	17.4	-1.05
Darvin Ham	9	11	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	0	2	15.8	17.1	-1.29	15.0	16.9	-1.93
Elden Campbell	7	8	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	6	-10	17.9	16.9	0.99	15.7	16.8	-1.05
Chucky Atkins	35	37	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.17	1	1	0	15.9	17.6	-1.75	17.0	16.5	0.47
Bob Sura	24	25	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.05	-4	6	-10	17.1	16.9	0.18	17.2	16.5	0.61

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wang Zhi-zhi	10	9	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-1	0	13.5	17.1	-3.58	15.4	17.1	-1.66
Dwyane Wade	70	67	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	0	-2	16.7	16.8	-0.08	16.6	18.0	-1.41
Malik Allen	26	22	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	3	-8	15.8	17.0	-1.24	16.5	17.1	-0.52
Eddie Jones	73	71	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.50	6	-8	14	16.2	18.3	-2.04	17.6	14.8	2.79
Lamar Odom	84	83	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.42	0	-2	2	17.0	14.6	2.43	17.1	15.8	1.28
Caron Butler	68	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	0	-2	17.2	15.6	1.55	16.8	17.3	-0.50
Udonis Haslem	79	78	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.36	-3	1	-4	17.1	14.7	2.43	16.9	17.3	-0.46
Rafer Alston	70	68	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.39	-3	1	-4	16.7	16.6	0.13	17.0	16.7	0.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.4,0.6,0.45,0.63,0.33,0.27,0.46,0.45,0.28,0.15,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 129, ATL 124	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.45,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.32,0.28,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.47,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.28,0.54,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.02,0	92.1%
SAS 104, CHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.32,0.33,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.38,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.29,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.44,0.46,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.57,0.27,0.54,0.39,0.12,0.1,0.02,0	90.3%
ORL 123, GSW 117	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.32,0.3,0.19,0.26,0.33,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.1,0.01,0	90.0%