NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	104		Excitement	5.4 [723]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): +13.1%
Washington Wizards	100		Comeback	1.2 [536]		LVP	Jarvis Hayes (WAS): -16.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.05	-0.00	31	56%	0.15	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.02
Drew Gooden	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	-0.00	0.01	8	75%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Juwan Howard	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	15	66%	0.09	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rod Strickland	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	6	87%	0.12	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
Gordan Giricek	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shammond Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	8	31%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.03	7	25%	-0.08	3	-0.04	2	0%	-0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.04	0.06	13	77%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mitchell Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brevin Knight	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	12	44%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	10	56%	0.01	1	-0.04	5	40%	-0.04
Kwame Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	13	50%	-0.03	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	6	25%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.02	0.04	17	48%	-0.08	3	-0.06	10	100%	0.05
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.03	0.02	10	27%	-0.11	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	0.2	29.9	0.7	31.0	1.8	30.3	116.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +41.3%

WAS -0.1%

WAS -9.1%

ORL +17.5%

ORL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	14.9	16.2	15.7	111.8	108.7	100.5
season	15.7	15.2		100.9	96.4
opponent	15.3	15.4		102.4	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.1	14.2	16.0	16.4	14.9
WAS	16.9	15.8	17.5	14.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gordan Giricek	52	50	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.21	16	-12	28	14.1	16.0	-1.87	15.6	17.0	-1.49
Rod Strickland	52	51	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.29	10	-6	16	14.7	15.2	-0.48	15.6	17.0	-1.37
Juwan Howard	71	70	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.27	6	-2	8	14.8	15.1	-0.25	16.7	14.9	1.75
Tracy McGrady	83	83	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.44	-3	7	-10	15.2	12.3	2.92	16.3	15.3	1.00
Drew Gooden	43	43	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.10	8	-4	12	14.9	14.9	0.01	16.7	15.9	0.77
Steven Hunter	14	14	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.05	10	-6	16	13.2	15.2	-1.99	15.9	16.3	-0.37
Keith Bogans	66	65	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.32	-3	7	-10	15.6	13.1	2.53	16.1	16.6	-0.50
Tyronn Lue	43	43	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.18	-9	13	-22	15.0	14.8	0.27	16.5	16.0	0.51
Andrew DeClercq	35	34	-0.14	0.65	-0.79	0.15	-10	14	-24	14.7	15.0	-0.35	15.9	16.4	-0.52
Shammond Williams	6	7	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.00	-5	9	-14	16.3	14.8	1.53	19.6	16.0	3.61

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitchell Butler	17	17	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-7	10	17.6	15.9	1.65	15.4	14.8	0.62
Brevin Knight	58	58	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.26	5	-9	14	16.2	16.4	-0.18	15.7	13.7	2.00
Brendan Haywood	15	15	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.06	-8	4	-12	16.4	16.2	0.19	14.1	15.1	-0.92
Kwame Brown	71	72	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.40	7	-11	18	15.9	17.3	-1.36	15.2	13.8	1.41
Jared Jeffries	57	58	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.15	-2	-2	0	16.7	15.5	1.26	14.7	15.2	-0.52
Etan Thomas	35	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	2	-8	17.0	15.8	1.27	14.0	15.4	-1.40
Juan Dixon	48	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-7	10	16.0	16.5	-0.46	16.0	13.7	2.27
Larry Hughes	67	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.32	-1	-3	2	15.9	17.1	-1.15	14.6	15.6	-0.95
Steve Blake	34	35	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.12	-9	5	-14	16.4	16.2	0.18	13.7	15.7	-2.00
Jarvis Hayes	58	59	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.20	-12	8	-20	15.8	17.0	-1.25	14.7	15.3	-0.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.43,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.24,0.27,0.29,0.18,0.13,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 92, NJN 75	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.29,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
MEM 97, SAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.21,0.27,0.2,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.29,0.33,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.1,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	94.1%
DEN 120, PHX 114	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.27,0.19,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.21,0.22,0.28,0.21,0.11,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0	94.1%