NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	90		Excitement	8.2 [200]		MVP	Steven Smith (NOH): +33.5%
New Orleans Hornets	91		Comeback	6.2 [332]		LVP	Baron Davis (NOH): -31.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rod Strickland	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	5	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Zaza Pachulia	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gordan Giricek	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.11	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	62%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	6	58%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,-0.08	0.10	-0.22	-0.05	21	63%	-0.00	2	-0.08	10	90%	0.06
Juwan Howard	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	13	57%	0.09	5	-0.22	2	100%	0.03
Drew Gooden	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	10	33%	-0.07	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.14	0.20	0.00	9	85%	0.33	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.04	0.00	8	78%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	5	69%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	0.00	11	50%	0.06	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	5	18%	-0.07	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	14	32%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.06	0.02	8	47%	-0.06	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.32	-0.32	-0.14	-0.19	-0.01	23	33%	-0.22	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	27.0	15.4	26.4	1.8	35.6	131.0
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -4.5%

ORL -14.0%

NOH +6.9%

NOH +47.4%

NOH +14.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NOH	NBA	ORL	NOH	NBA
this game	17.0	16.5	15.7	104.7	105.8	100.5
season	15.7	16.0		100.9	99.3
opponent	15.7	15.4		99.4	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.1	19.8	16.6	17.0	17.0
NOH	14.9	16.2	17.7	17.2	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	22	22	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.09	0	-1	1	17.9	16.7	1.11	16.6	16.4	0.25
Lee Nailon	7	7	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.01	-2	1	-3	16.1	17.1	-0.97	18.9	16.2	2.62
Andrew DeClercq	50	49	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-3	5	17.3	16.7	0.63	16.9	15.9	0.99
Tyronn Lue	54	54	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.55	12	-13	25	16.7	17.6	-0.94	17.4	14.8	2.61
Juwan Howard	60	60	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.48	7	-8	15	16.0	19.3	-3.26	16.6	16.0	0.65
Rod Strickland	32	32	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.08	-13	12	-25	17.6	16.7	0.94	14.8	17.4	-2.61
Drew Gooden	39	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	10	-21	18.2	16.1	2.09	15.9	16.9	-1.03
Tracy McGrady	72	72	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.49	5	-6	11	16.9	17.6	-0.64	17.0	13.5	3.53
Keith Bogans	73	73	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.40	-2	1	-3	16.9	18.0	-1.14	16.2	17.8	-1.64
Gordan Giricek	21	21	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.44	-3	2	-5	17.5	16.9	0.58	13.9	17.3	-3.44

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stacey Augmon	54	53	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.54	11	-10	21	16.4	16.6	-0.17	17.6	16.1	1.58
Steven Smith	51	50	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.42	13	-12	25	16.2	16.9	-0.73	17.5	16.3	1.21
Robert Traylor	36	35	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.16	9	-8	17	16.4	16.5	-0.06	17.4	16.8	0.57
Baron Davis	69	71	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.41	-1	2	-3	16.7	15.4	1.37	17.2	16.1	1.17
P.J. Brown	58	59	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.46	-6	7	-13	17.0	15.3	1.73	17.2	16.8	0.37
Sean Rooks	24	23	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.01	5	-4	9	15.2	16.9	-1.73	16.9	17.1	-0.23
George Lynch	33	34	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.32	-10	11	-21	16.1	16.7	-0.54	15.6	18.0	-2.39
Darrell Armstrong	52	51	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.11	-10	11	-21	16.4	16.6	-0.17	16.3	18.2	-1.92
Jamaal Magloire	53	54	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.08	-6	7	-13	16.7	16.1	0.64	17.1	17.0	0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.21,0.23,0.24,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.47,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.77,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 97, DET 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.19,0.27,0.14,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.69,0.45,0.77,0.91,1	92.4%
ORL 98, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.31,0.33,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.21,0.26,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.47,0.36,0.54,0.47,0.32,0.54,0.45,0.74,1	91.7%
NOP 123, HOU 130	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.3,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.22,0.13,0.08,0.18,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.29,0.19,0.3,0.34,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.9,0.91,1	91.6%