NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	72		Excitement	4.4 [937]		MVP	Morris Peterson (TOR): +9.7%
Toronto Raptors	83		Comeback	1.7 [873]		LVP	Zach Randolph (POR): -19.8%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	-0.01	-0.03	10	54%	0.02	0	0.00	8	62%	0.02
Qyntel Woods	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Jeff McInnis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.03	-0.01	0.06	13	59%	-0.04	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.01
Ruben Patterson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Vladimir Stepania	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.02	15	33%	-0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Derek Anderson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.15	-0.01	-0.03	10	9%	-0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zach Randolph	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.02	-0.03	17	28%	-0.12	4	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.01	-0.01	6	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	9	56%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	15	53%	0.08	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	0.06	-0.00	0.06	6	83%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	18	46%	-0.00	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.12	0.02	-0.06	18	49%	0.05	6	-0.09	5	60%	-0.01
Robert Archibald	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	14%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.0	1.8	30.3	17.4	24.5	0.2	31.6	126.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +65.7%

POR -1.7%

POR -3.8%

POR -7.7%

POR -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	TOR	NBA	POR	TOR	NBA
this game	18.3	18.1	15.7	92.3	103.8	100.5
season	17.1	16.8		101.5	94.8
opponent	15.7	15.7		98.4	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	19.8	19.8	19.4	14.7	18.3
TOR	16.2	17.2	20.6	18.7	18.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Qyntel Woods	39	38	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-13	15	19.8	16.9	2.90	18.9	17.4	1.54
Damon Stoudamire	60	61	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.21	2	-13	15	18.4	18.0	0.42	19.0	15.5	3.49
Wesley Person	14	14	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.02	-6	-5	-1	16.8	18.7	-1.87	17.3	18.3	-1.03
Vladimir Stepania	21	23	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.02	-9	-2	-7	18.8	18.2	0.60	16.3	18.9	-2.63
Ruben Patterson	31	33	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.06	-9	-2	-7	17.6	18.8	-1.12	17.2	18.8	-1.63
Zach Randolph	65	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.12	-8	-3	-5	18.0	20.2	-2.20	18.1	18.2	-0.02
Dale Davis	69	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-6	1	18.7	15.4	3.25	19.0	12.6	6.38
Jeff McInnis	63	65	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.13	-8	-3	-5	18.3	18.5	-0.26	18.1	18.4	-0.32
Derek Anderson	28	30	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.03	-14	3	-17	17.3	18.9	-1.56	16.4	19.2	-2.73

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	35	33	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.05	14	-3	17	16.5	19.4	-2.94	18.8	18.0	0.76
Robert Archibald	45	42	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.03	13	-2	15	17.7	18.7	-1.08	17.7	19.1	-1.37
Vince Carter	66	64	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.14	9	2	7	18.4	16.7	1.73	18.2	18.8	-0.57
Jalen Rose	69	67	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.17	6	5	1	18.0	18.9	-0.89	17.5	23.3	-5.77
Donyell Marshall	64	63	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.12	7	4	3	17.7	19.7	-1.94	18.6	17.1	1.47
Michael Curry	23	21	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.06	5	6	-1	17.9	18.2	-0.38	17.7	18.6	-0.89
Alvin Williams	56	56	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	9	-7	19.3	15.4	3.95	19.0	16.5	2.54
Lonny Baxter	42	44	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.17	-1	12	-13	18.9	17.3	1.62	19.0	17.5	1.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.8,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 102, ORL 115	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.37,0.35,0.38,0.47,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.82,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
BOS 87, SEA 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
WAS 87, MIL 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.74,0.77,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%