NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	77		Excitement	7.0 [401]		MVP	Ervin Johnson (MIN): +12.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves	83		Comeback	1.9 [794]		LVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): -25.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rafer Alston	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.06	0.00	8	75%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.04	0.01	12	68%	0.17	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	7	43%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Caron Butler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.15,-0.19	-0.04	-0.14	0.00	5	50%	-0.08	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Lamar Odom	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22	-0.08	-0.15	-0.01	16	45%	-0.07	4	-0.14	1	100%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.21,-0.25	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	16	22%	-0.25	1	-0.00	5	80%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ervin Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.01	6	83%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	1	150%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	24	54%	0.11	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.03
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	0.01	17	47%	0.01	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Mark Madsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	0	50%	-0.08	0	0.00	10	50%	-0.08
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	5	43%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.04
Trenton Hassell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	7	14%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	12	25%	-0.11	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.7	27.1	15.5	26.3	2.4	31.5	127.7
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +25.3%

MIA -7.9%

MIN +16.1%

MIN +15.5%

MIN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	18.2	15.7	15.7	91.7	96.5	100.5
season	16.2	15.6		99.3	103.2
opponent	16.1	15.9		98.4	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	18.0	18.1	19.1	17.8	18.2
MIN	16.3	15.5	14.5	16.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Loren Woods	32	34	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-4	2	18.1	18.3	-0.21	15.1	16.1	-0.94
Malik Allen	43	43	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.01	-4	-2	-2	18.4	18.0	0.44	15.0	16.4	-1.47
Caron Butler	33	33	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.01	-5	-1	-4	18.9	17.8	1.07	15.7	15.7	0.02
Brian Grant	70	70	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.33	5	-11	16	18.1	18.7	-0.59	16.1	13.9	2.23
Rafer Alston	74	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.44	3	-9	12	17.9	20.6	-2.69	15.8	15.1	0.66
Lamar Odom	68	70	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.31	-7	1	-8	18.4	17.6	0.82	16.0	14.3	1.69
Eddie Jones	70	71	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.25	-9	3	-12	18.2	18.1	0.10	15.7	15.5	0.27
Rasual Butler	30	33	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.23	-11	5	-16	18.0	18.4	-0.40	15.4	15.9	-0.47

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Oliver Miller	34	32	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.27	10	-4	14	15.4	15.8	-0.40	18.4	18.1	0.34
Kevin Garnett	71	70	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.21	8	-2	10	16.3	13.0	3.25	18.1	19.1	-1.01
Trenton Hassell	60	60	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	4	-2	16.5	13.9	2.58	18.5	17.5	0.96
Latrell Sprewell	74	73	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.31	2	4	-2	15.4	17.6	-2.20	18.4	17.2	1.20
Fred Hoiberg	39	36	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.04	10	-4	14	14.7	16.5	-1.82	17.1	19.1	-1.95
Sam Cassell	68	68	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.25	0	6	-6	16.1	14.1	2.06	18.3	17.8	0.51
Anthony Goldwire	18	16	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.07	6	0	6	14.1	16.1	-2.06	17.8	18.3	-0.51
Ervin Johnson	30	31	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.10	-2	8	-10	15.2	15.9	-0.70	18.9	17.8	1.02
Mark Madsen	36	34	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.10	-6	12	-18	15.6	15.8	-0.18	18.1	18.3	-0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.52,0.51,0.64,0.58,0.48,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.45,0.53,0.76,0.79,0.85,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOK 94, MIL 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.58,0.52,0.62,0.76,0.77,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.69,0.85,0.95,1,1	93.1%
WAS 88, ORL 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.34,0.41,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.7,0.61,0.59,0.68,0.72,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.61,0.76,0.89,0.85,0.85,1	92.4%
SAC 103, MIN 108	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.58,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.41,0.54,0.42,0.69,0.93,0.94,1,1	92.1%