NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	79		Excitement	4.0 [1004]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +19.5%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	1.8 [859]		LVP	Shareef Abdur-Rahim (ATL): -14.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Theo Ratliff	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	9	57%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	-0.00	-0.05	12	46%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.04	14	46%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dion Glover	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Dan Dickau	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Hansen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	7	43%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	46%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.15	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	18	37%	-0.12	2	-0.02	7	86%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.13	0.02	-0.04	10	79%	0.19	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.16	-0.00	0.03	22	68%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	12	63%	0.06	2	-0.04	6	83%	-0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	8	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.12	-0.00	-0.09	15	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	3	44%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	5	33%	-0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	9	22%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.0	28.2	15.4	25.2	1.8	28.2	125.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +22.4%

ATL -1.1%

MIA +17.4%

MIA +2.4%

MIA +8.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.0	17.1	15.7	92.9	115.5	100.5
season	15.3	16.2		98.2	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.5		98.8	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.8	18.8	18.0	17.1	17.0
MIA	14.6	21.2	13.9	19.8	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Dickau	7	7	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-18	18	17.6	17.0	0.61	15.3	17.2	-1.95
Travis Hansen	22	23	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-19	20	16.7	17.1	-0.38	20.8	15.7	5.11
Chris Crawford	12	12	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-15	12	17.4	16.9	0.47	13.9	17.6	-3.68
Lee Nailon	16	16	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	-11	4	17.7	16.8	0.91	14.6	17.7	-3.10
Nazr Mohammed	36	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.07	-10	-8	-2	17.2	16.9	0.27	18.0	16.4	1.67
Theo Ratliff	49	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.04	-8	-10	2	16.9	17.2	-0.27	16.4	18.0	-1.67
Dion Glover	46	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.14	-15	-3	-12	17.4	16.5	0.87	17.6	16.4	1.19
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	61	61	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	-9	0	16.6	18.1	-1.49	17.9	14.9	3.03
Jason Terry	66	64	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.07	-9	-9	0	16.5	18.9	-2.49	16.4	19.2	-2.79
Stephen Jackson	49	48	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.02	-12	-6	-6	17.1	16.9	0.26	16.5	17.9	-1.38
Jacque Vaughn	61	61	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.08	-18	0	-18	17.4	16.0	1.41	17.1	17.0	0.04

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Caron Butler	53	56	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.09	22	-4	26	14.8	21.0	-6.23	16.5	18.0	-1.45
Dwyane Wade	68	70	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.06	18	0	18	16.6	19.0	-2.38	16.9	17.6	-0.71
Lamar Odom	70	69	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.01	13	5	8	17.6	14.6	3.00	16.6	18.9	-2.37
Brian Grant	60	60	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.01	12	6	6	16.2	19.2	-3.05	16.9	17.2	-0.21
Eddie Jones	62	61	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.04	10	8	2	16.3	19.2	-2.92	16.9	17.3	-0.45
Udonis Haslem	31	32	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	15	-12	18.9	16.0	2.90	18.5	16.1	2.39
Loren Woods	24	25	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.04	6	12	-6	19.2	16.2	3.05	17.2	16.9	0.21
Rafer Alston	46	46	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	14	-10	19.0	14.7	4.26	17.7	16.3	1.40
Rasual Butler	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	17	-16	20.3	17.0	3.38	16.7	17.0	-0.36
Malik Allen	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	17	-16	20.3	17.0	3.38	16.7	17.0	-0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 86, HOU 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.47,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.67,0.59,0.67,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.93,0.89,0.88,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.9,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
MIN 97, CLE 125	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.61,0.54,0.65,0.69,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
SAS 84, LAC 106	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.73,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%