NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	100		Excitement	6.1 [574]		MVP	Donyell Marshall (TOR): +12.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers	93		Comeback	2.5 [204]		LVP	Zydrunas Ilgauskas (CLE): -19.0%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donyell Marshall	0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.05	0.01	11	71%	0.15	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.01	10	58%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Alvin Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	17	51%	0.09	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.02
Vince Carter	0.01	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.02	-0.04	20	49%	0.05	3	-0.04	5	60%	0.00
Jerome Moiso	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	43%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darius Miles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.01	-0.00	4	100%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	14	52%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	7	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	67%	0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	7	64%	0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	16	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Carlos Boozer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.03	16	35%	-0.07	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chris Mihm	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	3	12%	-0.09	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.09	0.00	12	50%	-0.06	4	-0.13	10	70%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.4	28.4	14.7	26.4	2.4	33.6	132.5
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +40.3%

CLE -6.8%

TOR +1.2%

TOR +16.5%

CLE -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	CLE	NBA	TOR	CLE	NBA
this game	15.4	14.9	15.7	104.2	98.9	100.5
season	16.8	15.7		94.8	99.8
opponent	15.5	15.7		102.3	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.1	16.2	12.7	17.0	15.4
CLE	15.2	14.4	15.6	14.3	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	71	70	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.27	11	-4	15	15.9	14.0	1.93	14.8	15.1	-0.27
Alvin Williams	77	75	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.24	8	-1	9	14.5	19.0	-4.45	15.0	14.5	0.51
Jalen Rose	82	79	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.25	3	4	-1	15.4	15.4	0.08	15.0	14.4	0.57
Vince Carter	77	75	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.33	0	7	-7	14.7	18.5	-3.86	14.7	15.4	-0.67
Lonny Baxter	35	35	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.02	8	-1	9	15.5	15.4	0.18	16.8	13.7	3.05
Morris Peterson	33	34	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.10	3	4	-1	17.5	14.4	3.09	14.4	15.1	-0.69
Michael Curry	22	21	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.01	6	1	5	16.7	15.0	1.69	14.7	14.9	-0.22
Donyell Marshall	69	69	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.25	-5	12	-17	14.6	17.6	-2.96	14.2	16.8	-2.56
Jerome Moiso	14	12	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.01	1	6	-5	18.9	14.8	4.02	14.7	14.9	-0.15

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Miles	30	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.04	-7	0	-7	14.4	15.1	-0.71	17.7	14.4	3.26
Ira Newble	75	76	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.34	6	-13	19	14.5	16.5	-1.99	15.2	16.2	-1.04
Jason Kapono	21	23	-0.20	-0.29	0.09	-0.15	-2	-5	3	14.0	15.2	-1.20	15.7	15.3	0.35
Carlos Boozer	83	83	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-6	5	14.7	16.5	-1.78	15.4	15.8	-0.40
Kevin Ollie	26	25	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.08	-7	0	-7	14.6	15.0	-0.42	15.9	15.3	0.61
Ricky Davis	75	76	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-5	3	14.8	15.3	-0.48	14.7	18.0	-3.25
LeBron James	72	75	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-5	3	15.1	14.2	0.86	14.7	18.1	-3.42
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	69	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-3	-1	15.4	13.4	2.07	15.6	15.0	0.52
Chris Mihm	19	21	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.03	-16	9	-25	17.2	14.3	2.92	17.0	15.0	2.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.12,0.13,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 85, DEN 77	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.16,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0	93.8%
DEN 112, TOR 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.34,0.3,0.18,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.02,0,0	93.4%
TOR 113, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.26,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.05,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.2%