NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	83		Excitement	5.4 [713]		MVP	Corey Maggette (LAC): +5.6%
Los Angeles Clippers	91		Comeback	1.6 [887]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -24.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.01	0.04	18	60%	0.04	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.01
Robert Horry	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Hart	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.03	0.03	11	37%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.00	-0.00	12	27%	-0.09	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.16	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	14	35%	-0.13	1	-0.03	9	33%	-0.10
Tony Parker	-0.24	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.17	-0.08	-0.01	15	36%	-0.17	3	-0.08	9	44%	-0.04

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	14	63%	0.06	0	0.00	10	80%	0.01
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	9	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.10	0.03	-0.05	13	47%	0.04	4	-0.07	6	50%	-0.03
Marko Jaric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	8	54%	-0.00	2	-0.04	8	75%	-0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	6	63%	0.01	3	-0.08	7	86%	-0.00
Predrag Drobnjak	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Doug Overton	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	6	31%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.00	13	38%	-0.03	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	592.3	1.5	31.1	-705.2	28.1	1.8	42.2	-8.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +22.2%

LAC +11.2%

LAC +17.6%

SAS -1.1%

LAC +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAC	NBA	SAS	LAC	NBA
this game	15.6	15.2	15.7	88.3	97.8	100.5
season	15.9	15.5		100.1	101.3
opponent	15.4	15.8		106.0	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.4	17.5	13.5	13.6	15.6
LAC	16.7	15.2	17.0	12.5	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	44	43	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.07	0	-8	8	15.4	15.8	-0.40	16.8	13.9	2.95
Malik Rose	62	63	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.29	6	-14	20	15.3	16.1	-0.74	15.5	14.6	0.87
Kevin Willis	12	12	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-5	2	13.7	15.8	-2.09	12.7	15.6	-2.94
Jason Hart	19	19	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.04	-5	-3	-2	17.6	15.1	2.51	15.0	15.3	-0.28
Robert Horry	29	29	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	2	-12	17.7	14.6	3.06	16.1	14.8	1.33
Tony Parker	75	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-5	2	15.1	17.6	-2.51	15.3	15.0	0.28
Ron Mercer	16	16	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	4	-16	20.7	14.5	6.16	15.5	15.2	0.33
Hedo Turkoglu	58	55	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.16	-7	-1	-6	14.8	16.8	-2.00	13.1	18.3	-5.22
Manu Ginobili	79	80	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.31	-2	-6	4	15.0	18.5	-3.52	15.3	14.6	0.71
Rasho Nesterovic	76	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-4	0	15.5	16.0	-0.53	15.5	14.0	1.54

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marko Jaric	58	58	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.16	16	-8	24	13.5	18.1	-4.63	15.0	16.5	-1.55
Bobby Simmons	56	57	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.18	15	-7	22	14.5	16.3	-1.73	15.6	15.5	0.19
Chris Kaman	65	67	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.16	9	-1	10	14.2	17.6	-3.36	14.8	17.6	-2.78
Corey Maggette	79	79	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.28	4	4	0	15.1	15.9	-0.74	14.6	20.8	-6.22
Eddie House	29	30	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.02	10	-2	12	15.6	15.0	0.57	16.5	15.1	1.36
Quentin Richardson	74	75	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	8	-8	14.7	17.2	-2.49	15.5	16.0	-0.53
Melvin Ely	38	37	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.13	-4	12	-16	18.4	13.0	5.36	17.4	14.4	3.06
Predrag Drobnjak	27	28	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	12	-16	17.0	14.5	2.45	17.8	14.6	3.20
Doug Overton	39	39	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.05	-6	14	-20	17.1	13.9	3.23	15.8	15.4	0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.77,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.81,0.86,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.78,0.91,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.99,1,1,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 96, POR 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.65,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.89,0.85,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.99,0.99,1	94.9%
CHI 81, IND 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.74,0.84,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1	94.9%
NJN 85, MIA 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.79,0.81,0.8,0.73,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.87,0.92,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.95,0.97,1,1,1	94.6%