NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	89		Excitement	4.5 [895]		MVP	Speedy Claxton (SAS): +10.6%
Detroit Pistons	83		Comeback	1.1 [857]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -21.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Speedy Claxton	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.01	0.01	10	80%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	16	59%	0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	0.02	-0.02	11	47%	0.01	2	-0.05	8	75%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	12	32%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	22	48%	-0.04	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	10	75%	0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	8	62%	0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	9	55%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	0.02	13	52%	-0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.17	-0.03	-0.02	6	7%	-0.09	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.21	-0.04	-0.03	17	31%	-0.14	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.4	27.5	16.5	21.5	2.6	35.4	129.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +26.7%

DET -4.9%

SAS +20.5%

SAS +7.5%

SAS +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	17.3	17.6	15.5	107.2	101.2	101.6
season	15.7	16.8		102.5	101.7
opponent	15.6	15.4		97.8	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.6	16.9	18.8	18.2	17.3
DET	18.7	17.4	19.1	15.2	17.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Jackson	60	60	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.08	15	-9	24	16.3	20.0	-3.62	17.9	16.6	1.28
Tim Duncan	75	73	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.30	7	-1	8	17.5	16.2	1.20	17.5	18.1	-0.60
Tony Parker	52	49	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.16	10	-4	14	18.4	15.5	2.96	18.4	16.3	2.13
Bruce Bowen	55	55	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	0	6	18.8	14.5	4.28	18.3	16.0	2.35
Malik Rose	62	61	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	3	0	17.4	17.1	0.26	18.7	14.2	4.55
Kevin Willis	28	29	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	2	2	16.6	17.7	-1.05	15.3	18.8	-3.45
Manu Ginobili	30	29	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.14	-1	7	-8	17.8	17.1	0.72	16.0	18.4	-2.43
Speedy Claxton	31	33	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	10	-14	15.5	18.4	-2.96	16.3	18.4	-2.13
Danny Ferry	1	1	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	8	-10	24.0	17.3	6.74	16.0	17.6	-1.59
Steven Smith	21	20	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.21	-8	14	-22	15.8	17.9	-2.11	16.7	17.9	-1.15

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Manning	10	10	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.15	7	-13	20	15.8	17.8	-2.02	18.6	17.2	1.44
Hubert Davis	20	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-8	10	19.9	16.8	3.08	15.8	17.9	-2.11
Ben Wallace	32	32	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-5	4	17.6	17.5	0.08	16.2	18.0	-1.77
Jon Barry	39	41	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.29	6	-12	18	15.6	19.3	-3.73	16.6	18.1	-1.53
Corliss Williamson	52	52	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.28	1	-7	8	15.6	20.9	-5.30	17.2	17.5	-0.23
Tayshaun Prince	40	40	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.09	-7	1	-8	18.2	17.0	1.22	17.8	16.9	0.89
Mehmet Okur	60	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.40	2	-8	10	16.7	19.8	-3.07	17.5	16.8	0.71
Michael Curry	34	33	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.01	-13	7	-20	20.1	15.8	4.35	17.8	17.0	0.80
Clifford Robinson	58	59	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.15	-14	8	-22	18.9	14.2	4.70	17.6	16.7	0.88
Richard Hamilton	65	65	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.18	-13	7	-20	17.6	17.3	0.35	17.8	15.6	2.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.26,0.18,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 107, ATL 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.29,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0	95.5%
SAS 74, IND 55	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.21,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.1%
SAS 96, SAC 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.42,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.2,0.07,0.04,0.05,0	95.0%