NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	91		Excitement	8.4 [187]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): +22.6%
Miami Heat	86		Comeback	5.7 [275]		LVP	Malik Allen (MIA): -18.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.23	0.04	0.19	-0.00	16	56%	0.30	1	-0.07	4	100%	0.06
Gary Payton	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18	0.08	0.10	0.01	14	62%	0.18	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.00	13	52%	0.13	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Haislip	-0.00	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.11,-0.11	-0.13	0.01	-0.01	13	38%	-0.02	2	-0.08	8	62%	-0.10
Tim Thomas	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	10	30%	-0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.02	-0.12	0.00	7	43%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	15	47%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.11,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.02	0.02	0.10	-0.08	0.00	15	66%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	9	52%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.02
Sean Lampley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	7	50%	0.07	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	8	28%	-0.07	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	-0.00	-0.01	7	14%	-0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.01	-0.14	0.01	12	58%	-0.01	3	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.05	-0.13	0.00	9	36%	-0.18	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.9	2.7	27.7	15.8	20.4	2.5	31.6	123.4
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +60.2%

MIA -3.8%

MIA -27.7%

MIL +19.0%

MIL +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIA	NBA	MIL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.9	15.7	15.5	102.2	92.5	101.6
season	15.4	16.3		106.3	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.8		100.7	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.4	15.4	18.3	13.2	15.9
MIA	16.9	16.6	14.6	15.0	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	55	57	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.38	17	-12	29	15.8	16.1	-0.34	16.2	15.0	1.26
Toni Kukoc	52	52	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.34	15	-10	25	14.5	17.9	-3.35	16.4	14.9	1.46
Sam Cassell	72	76	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.41	2	3	-1	16.0	15.4	0.62	15.2	18.1	-2.84
Gary Payton	81	84	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.40	1	4	-3	15.8	17.1	-1.33	15.8	15.6	0.21
Desmond Mason	63	66	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.41	-7	12	-19	16.4	14.8	1.61	15.9	15.4	0.42
Michael Redd	47	48	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.19	7	-2	9	15.1	16.8	-1.61	15.2	16.4	-1.19
Tim Thomas	32	32	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.22	6	-1	7	15.1	16.4	-1.23	15.6	15.8	-0.27
Marcus Haislip	24	28	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.15	-8	13	-21	18.2	15.1	3.15	15.0	16.0	-1.01
Joel Przybilla	19	22	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.09	-8	13	-21	18.9	15.1	3.79	16.7	15.4	1.29

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Stepania	60	57	0.11	-0.61	0.73	0.03	3	-8	11	16.1	15.2	0.92	17.1	13.9	3.18
Sean Lampley	12	12	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.03	-3	-2	-1	15.7	15.8	-0.09	18.0	15.6	2.42
Travis Best	37	37	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.32	4	-9	13	14.4	16.7	-2.31	14.6	16.8	-2.25
Anthony Carter	48	45	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.10	-4	-1	-3	17.0	14.4	2.64	17.3	14.5	2.79
Eddie House	59	58	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.28	-1	-4	3	14.5	18.0	-3.51	15.5	16.6	-1.13
Mike James	44	41	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	6	-17	16.8	14.8	2.04	15.0	16.6	-1.60
Rasual Butler	81	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.39	-2	-3	1	15.8	15.7	0.09	15.6	18.0	-2.42
Malik Allen	45	43	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.20	-9	4	-13	15.5	16.0	-0.45	15.9	16.0	-0.10
Brian Grant	79	75	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.50	-2	-3	1	15.9	15.1	0.79	15.7	17.2	-1.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.41,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.3,0.4,0.42,0.22,0.18,0.24,0.47,0.49,0.6,0.78,0.76,0.63,0.68,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 98, PHX 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.2,0.12,0.16,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.23,0.14,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.34,0.47,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.61,0.72,0.57,0.58,0	91.2%
UTA 114, DEN 111	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.39,0.46,0.36,0.3,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.13,0.2,0.24,0.44,0.44,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.59,0.71,0.6,0.75,0.64,0.69,0.17,0	90.1%
HOU 87, SAS 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.46,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.47,0.66,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.59,0.42,0	89.5%