NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	112		Excitement	11.3 [25]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +20.7%
Dallas Mavericks	110		Comeback	5.2 [180]		LVP	Steve Nash (DAL): -26.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.21	0.00	0.18	-0.03	21	52%	0.28	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.08	0.00	11	74%	0.21	3	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.05	0.00	18	62%	0.18	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.04,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	14	69%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.15
Steve Kerr	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.04	0.00	3	87%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.07,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.08	0.09	-0.01	8	45%	0.12	3	-0.11	4	25%	-0.05
Kevin Willis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Steven Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.01	8	42%	-0.08	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.18,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.09	-0.00	24	61%	0.25	2	-0.07	9	78%	-0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	0.00	6	42%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09	-0.09	0.02	-0.11	0.00	5	58%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.08
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.04	-0.10	-0.01	7	44%	-0.11	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.07,-0.07,-0.22	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	0.00	24	55%	-0.00	5	-0.22	14	93%	0.07
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.01	-0.26	-0.01	16	51%	-0.03	2	-0.23	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	25.3	24.5	29.3	1.7	30.2	2.5	12.2	152.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	1.9	17.2	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +104.8%

DAL -28.3%

DAL -46.8%

SAS +20.8%

DAL -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	17.7	15.3	15.5	117.9	112.2	101.6
season	15.7	15.1		102.5	108.6
opponent	15.3	15.4		102.0	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	14.1	18.5	16.2	22.2	19.6	17.7
DAL	15.3	14.2	15.1	14.9	20.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	89	91	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	-5	12	17.2	24.2	-6.95	15.6	11.3	4.36
Tony Parker	73	76	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.38	0	2	-2	16.7	20.8	-4.12	15.6	14.5	1.02
Malik Rose	76	79	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.40	-1	3	-4	17.6	17.7	-0.11	15.5	14.5	1.01
Steve Kerr	13	12	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	-4	10	18.8	17.5	1.29	14.4	15.5	-1.05
Stephen Jackson	62	66	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.42	-4	6	-10	17.6	17.7	-0.07	15.1	15.8	-0.66
Bruce Bowen	85	85	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.15	4	-2	6	17.5	19.2	-1.73	15.6	13.5	2.07
Manu Ginobili	43	44	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.07	2	0	2	18.0	17.3	0.72	15.5	15.2	0.21
Danny Ferry	6	5	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	-1	4	12.7	18.0	-5.32	17.8	15.2	2.60
Steven Smith	6	7	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	2	-2	18.0	17.6	0.37	15.0	15.4	-0.36
Speedy Claxton	9	11	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.10	-2	4	-6	23.8	17.0	6.77	13.5	15.6	-2.12
Kevin Willis	13	14	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.10	-5	7	-12	22.9	16.8	6.11	11.5	16.0	-4.48

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walt Williams	22	21	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.04	5	-7	12	13.7	15.8	-2.13	20.0	17.0	3.07
Raef LaFrentz	31	28	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.18	-4	2	-6	15.1	15.4	-0.30	16.6	18.1	-1.48
Nick Van Exel	76	75	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.25	7	-9	16	15.2	15.7	-0.44	18.6	14.1	4.44
Adrian Griffin	44	44	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	2	-6	15.1	15.5	-0.36	15.6	19.4	-3.76
Steve Nash	80	77	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.48	6	-8	14	15.0	16.6	-1.56	18.1	15.8	2.24
Eduardo Najera	57	55	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.73	9	-11	20	15.5	15.2	0.29	20.1	14.3	5.70
Shawn Bradley	51	50	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.39	-6	4	-10	16.1	14.5	1.59	17.0	18.4	-1.34
Raja Bell	36	34	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.13	-16	14	-30	15.7	15.1	0.57	13.7	19.9	-6.19
Dirk Nowitzki	93	91	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.42	-7	5	-12	15.6	10.6	4.99	17.6	17.7	-0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.26,0.3,0.41,0.21,0.23,0.14,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.32,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.36,0.77,0.84,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 114, DAL 112	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.26,0.34,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.32,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.46,0.76,0.42,0	88.7%
LAL 116, LAC 114	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.16,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.14,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.45,0.22,0.42,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.78,0.73,0	88.1%
SAS 116, POR 111	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.57,0.54,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.51,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.28,0.37,0.26,0.46,0.22,0.25,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.54,0.25,0.28,0.57,0.82,0	87.7%