NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	92		Excitement	8.6 [172]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DAL): +42.8%
Utah Jazz	90		Comeback	3.2 [452]		LVP	Matt Harpring (UTA): -25.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.43	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.43	0.05	0.36	-0.01	11	55%	0.43	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	12	74%	0.16	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	-0.01	0.07	-0.05	23	50%	0.16	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Michael Finley	0.08	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	0.00	16	53%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	57%	0.09	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Raja Bell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Rigaudeau	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Massenburg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.07	0.00	7	69%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.1	0.10	-0.04	0.12	-0.02	8	53%	0.15	2	-0.05	3	0%	-0.09
Karl Malone	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	11	60%	0.05	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.09
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
John Stockton	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.07	-0.01	7	50%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Scott Padgett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.18,0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.05	-0.11	0.01	10	65%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	8	39%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.26	-0.26	-0.06	-0.21	-0.01	19	48%	-0.20	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.4	2.5	26.6	15.6	22.2	2.4	28.4	118.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +87.3%

DAL +0.8%

UTA -41.9%

UTA -1.2%

DAL +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	UTA	NBA	DAL	UTA	NBA
this game	16.5	16.8	15.5	108.2	102.3	101.6
season	15.1	16.3		108.6	103.1
opponent	15.3	15.3		101.1	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.4	15.7	18.6	17.9	16.5
UTA	16.2	15.0	14.1	23.1	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	77	79	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.57	5	-3	8	16.2	19.9	-3.68	15.9	24.1	-8.20
Raef LaFrentz	47	50	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.34	13	-11	24	16.3	16.8	-0.50	17.9	15.2	2.71
Steve Nash	56	59	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.35	11	-9	20	15.3	18.9	-3.63	17.5	15.1	2.40
Dirk Nowitzki	79	81	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.38	7	-5	12	16.7	14.2	2.55	17.0	13.7	3.30
Nick Van Exel	47	49	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.51	-6	8	-14	18.6	14.1	4.50	17.7	15.6	2.08
Raja Bell	40	40	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.07	6	-4	10	14.8	18.1	-3.29	15.9	17.4	-1.47
Adrian Griffin	11	10	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	3	-4	19.7	16.1	3.66	17.2	16.7	0.51
Antoine Rigaudeau	16	19	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	8	-14	17.1	16.4	0.72	12.5	17.9	-5.39
Shawn Bradley	31	31	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.10	-9	11	-20	16.0	16.9	-0.90	15.4	17.5	-2.15
Walt Williams	21	22	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	-0.05	-10	12	-22	18.5	15.9	2.57	18.8	16.1	2.76

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Jackson	29	28	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.02	7	-9	16	16.6	16.8	-0.24	20.2	14.7	5.53
Scott Padgett	33	31	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.25	11	-13	24	17.1	16.5	0.59	17.5	16.0	1.53
Tony Massenburg	39	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.33	10	-12	22	16.9	16.7	0.22	19.1	14.7	4.41
Greg Ostertag	40	40	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.12	-7	5	-12	15.7	17.6	-1.97	15.8	17.2	-1.40
Andrei Kirilenko	49	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.49	10	-12	22	16.9	16.5	0.43	18.9	13.6	5.26
Calbert Cheaney	57	55	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	3	-8	17.1	16.1	0.96	15.1	19.1	-4.01
Matt Harpring	70	68	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.33	-9	7	-16	16.3	18.3	-1.99	16.1	18.5	-2.41
John Stockton	59	57	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.46	-9	7	-16	16.8	16.6	0.24	14.7	20.2	-5.53
Karl Malone	64	63	-0.95	0.45	-1.40	-0.42	-18	16	-34	17.2	15.7	1.49	15.1	20.7	-5.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.28,0.24,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.76,0.4,0.15,0.37,0.33,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 93, ORL 91	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.31,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.53,0.45,0.24,0.47,0	89.8%
HOU 112, NJN 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.35,0.29,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.2,0.15,0.19,0.29,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.28,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.62,0.73,0.63,0.65,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.55,0.42,0	89.7%
WAS 94, ORL 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.19,0.2,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.43,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.33,0.08,0	89.6%