NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	79		Excitement	4.4 [924]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +15.9%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	2.1 [619]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (ATL): -23.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dion Glover	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.02	9	57%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Jackson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Dickau	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	37%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Corey Benjamin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	13	68%	0.07	5	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Terry	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.05	0.02	13	45%	-0.08	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.23	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.22	-0.05	-0.04	18	32%	-0.11	6	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.19	0.04	0.07	11	90%	0.18	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.00	-0.02	8	68%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	56%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	6	65%	0.03	1	-0.01	8	62%	-0.05
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.04	-0.01	11	46%	0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	8	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	11	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.02	-0.05	12	33%	-0.05	2	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.5	27.4	15.4	23.5	2.7	27.4	125.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +24.6%

MIA +6.9%

ATL -3.0%

MIA +21.0%

MIA +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	15.9	15.5	87.8	110.0	101.6
season	15.1	16.3		99.5	94.6
opponent	15.9	15.7		100.7	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.2	15.2	18.5	16.9	16.1
MIA	14.6	17.5	14.2	17.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Theo Ratliff	61	61	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-20	20	16.5	15.4	1.06	17.0	13.6	3.42
Jermaine Jackson	21	21	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.13	-6	-14	8	16.9	15.9	1.01	17.4	15.4	1.98
Glenn Robinson	74	74	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-18	16	16.2	15.7	0.47	16.2	14.4	1.81
Dan Dickau	20	20	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.10	-6	-14	8	15.5	16.3	-0.81	17.5	15.4	2.10
Corey Benjamin	10	11	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.07	-5	-15	10	13.8	16.4	-2.63	16.7	15.7	0.98
Darvin Ham	10	10	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	-12	4	15.1	16.3	-1.16	14.8	16.0	-1.20
Nazr Mohammed	21	22	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.10	-12	-8	-4	14.6	16.6	-2.04	13.9	16.5	-2.65
Dion Glover	68	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.16	-7	-13	6	16.7	14.5	2.22	15.7	16.3	-0.64
Jason Terry	64	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.03	-16	-4	-12	15.6	17.5	-1.87	15.1	17.9	-2.79
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	67	66	-0.45	-0.06	-0.39	0.14	-20	0	-20	15.9	16.8	-0.87	16.2	15.0	1.24
Alan Henderson	34	34	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	0.03	-18	-2	-16	17.6	15.3	2.29	13.8	17.1	-3.33

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	35	34	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.10	19	1	18	14.9	16.5	-1.61	16.7	15.8	0.97
Eddie Jones	78	77	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.11	19	1	18	15.9	15.6	0.33	16.0	16.8	-0.83
Vladimir Stepania	38	39	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.08	17	3	14	15.1	16.5	-1.41	16.5	15.9	0.58
Mike James	50	50	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.24	22	-2	24	15.5	16.4	-0.91	15.6	16.8	-1.29
Rasual Butler	36	35	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.06	13	7	6	15.2	16.3	-1.07	15.9	16.3	-0.36
Caron Butler	66	68	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.00	8	12	-4	16.2	15.0	1.13	16.4	15.4	1.02
Travis Best	40	40	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.16	-2	22	-24	16.4	15.5	0.91	16.8	15.6	1.29
Brian Grant	54	53	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	17	-14	16.6	14.8	1.72	16.1	16.2	-0.14
Malik Allen	53	54	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.02	1	19	-18	16.4	15.1	1.29	15.6	17.0	-1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.61,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 85, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.0%
LAC 81, SEA 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.47,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.83,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
WAS 99, CLE 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.78,0.79,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%