NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	99		Excitement	3.4 [1104]		MVP	Kevin Ollie (MIL): +8.0%
Toronto Raptors	87		Comeback	1.1 [1070]		LVP	Antonio Davis (TOR): -9.6%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Ollie	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.01	5	80%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.01	0.03	7	87%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	8	67%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Cassell	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	68%	0.08	2	-0.03	8	100%	0.03
Anthony Mason	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	12	58%	0.07	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	12	56%	0.05	3	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	9	40%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jelani McCoy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	6	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.04	11	64%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	12	48%	-0.02	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	21	46%	-0.00	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Art Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	0.04	14	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Damone Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	10	29%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Antonio Davis	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.15	-0.01	-0.06	10	27%	-0.07	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	26.1	15.5	23.5	2.6	30.7	124.3
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +50.2%

MIL +10.5%

TOR -12.1%

MIL +3.0%

TOR -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	17.0	17.1	15.5	117.9	102.4	101.6
season	15.4	16.2		106.3	98.8
opponent	15.3	15.8		105.1	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	18.6	13.1	17.6	19.0	17.0
TOR	16.6	18.2	18.4	15.3	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toni Kukoc	55	55	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.02	17	-5	22	17.3	16.3	0.96	16.5	18.2	-1.74
Sam Cassell	63	63	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.04	12	0	12	15.9	20.1	-4.22	17.0	17.3	-0.23
Ervin Johnson	28	28	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.09	15	-3	18	16.7	17.1	-0.34	18.0	16.7	1.28
Kevin Ollie	32	33	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	4	4	17.4	16.7	0.64	16.8	17.3	-0.47
Ray Allen	62	63	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.13	4	8	-4	17.0	17.0	-0.09	17.4	16.3	1.12
Michael Redd	40	40	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.26	-1	13	-14	17.1	16.8	0.28	15.7	18.3	-2.56
Tim Thomas	51	53	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.03	6	6	0	16.6	17.5	-0.94	18.4	14.9	3.48
Jason Caffey	41	43	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.15	0	12	-12	17.6	16.4	1.24	17.3	16.9	0.49
Anthony Mason	48	47	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.16	-1	13	-14	17.6	16.1	1.47	16.7	17.7	-1.00

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jelani McCoy	24	22	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.02	-6	-6	0	16.4	17.4	-0.96	16.1	17.3	-1.14
Alvin Williams	53	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	-10	8	17.0	17.2	-0.23	16.3	18.1	-1.83
Art Long	10	10	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.12	-11	-1	-10	15.7	17.3	-1.59	13.4	17.5	-4.06
Damone Brown	52	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.10	-4	-8	4	17.4	16.6	0.77	17.8	15.8	2.01
Antonio Davis	67	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	-7	2	17.8	14.7	3.09	17.2	16.0	1.22
Rafer Alston	61	60	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.13	-11	-1	-10	17.1	17.2	-0.08	17.1	16.7	0.32
Jerome Williams	79	78	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.14	-11	-1	-10	17.2	15.8	1.37	17.2	13.5	3.74
Morris Peterson	79	79	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.17	-10	-2	-8	16.7	22.2	-5.45	17.1	15.6	1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.2,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 106, VAN 86	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.1%
ORL 109, MIN 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0	95.7%
SAS 117, MIL 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.04,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0	95.7%