NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	76		Excitement	5.5 [695]		MVP	Juwan Howard (DEN): +5.1%
Denver Nuggets	86		Comeback	1.2 [597]		LVP	Mike James (MIA): -19.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vladimir Stepania	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	16	53%	0.02	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.04
Malik Allen	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.06	-0.05	0.05	11	65%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	-0.00
Sean Lampley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Carter	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	12	43%	-0.02	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.05
Brian Grant	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	9	40%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	9	33%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	2	17%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Mike James	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.13	-0.05	0.02	5	20%	-0.09	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.11	-0.00	0.05	17	70%	0.11	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.03
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	7	67%	0.06	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.04
Donnell Harvey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Predrag Savovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vincent Yarbrough	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	5	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Junior Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	4	30%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	7	67%	0.05	6	-0.17	4	50%	-0.00
Rodney White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.05	0.01	16	44%	-0.01	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	2.4	33.1	15.8	26.0	2.7	28.4	135.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +41.7%

DEN +6.2%

DEN +5.5%

MIA -6.3%

DEN +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	16.3	16.1	15.5	85.4	96.6	101.6
season	16.3	15.7		94.6	90.4
opponent	15.3	15.9		99.4	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.8	15.8	15.7	15.9	16.3
DEN	14.3	14.8	17.0	18.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Lampley	39	42	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.10	3	-13	16	15.5	16.9	-1.41	16.6	15.5	1.11
LaPhonso Ellis	18	17	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-13	16	14.3	16.8	-2.47	13.5	16.7	-3.12
Sean Marks	3	2	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-10	10	13.3	16.4	-3.07	10.0	16.2	-6.20
Vladimir Stepania	36	35	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.02	-3	-7	4	17.2	15.7	1.59	15.4	16.5	-1.03
Anthony Carter	68	65	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.05	-2	-8	6	16.7	15.1	1.58	16.0	16.2	-0.15
Eddie House	37	35	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.10	-1	-9	8	14.3	17.7	-3.43	15.8	16.2	-0.38
Malik Allen	52	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.15	-3	-7	4	16.5	16.0	0.52	16.4	15.5	0.85
Caron Butler	80	80	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.26	-10	0	-10	16.5	14.1	2.44	16.0	16.3	-0.31
Brian Grant	68	69	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.16	-17	7	-24	16.5	15.7	0.83	16.8	13.4	3.36
Mike James	44	46	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.10	-20	10	-30	17.3	15.3	2.05	16.0	16.2	-0.21

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	77	77	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.19	16	-6	22	16.1	16.0	0.06	17.0	12.1	4.88
Vincent Yarbrough	57	54	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-2	14	15.8	16.5	-0.74	15.8	17.1	-1.29
Ryan Bowen	65	65	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	-2	14	15.5	17.5	-1.92	17.2	13.7	3.50
Nene	59	59	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.10	10	0	10	16.8	14.6	2.20	16.4	16.1	0.31
Junior Harrington	56	58	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	3	4	17.2	14.2	2.98	17.4	14.3	3.04
Rodney White	69	70	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.14	0	10	-10	15.8	16.8	-1.02	15.5	19.3	-3.83
Predrag Savovic	1	2	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	10	-10	7.0	16.2	-9.16	11.5	16.4	-4.91
Donnell Harvey	4	4	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	10	-10	21.2	15.8	5.44	18.7	16.2	2.56
Mark Blount	35	35	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.13	-5	15	-20	14.5	17.1	-2.64	15.6	16.7	-1.11
Nikoloz Tskitishvili	22	21	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.03	-2	12	-14	16.2	16.0	0.17	12.9	17.4	-4.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.69,0.76,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.77,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 95, MIL 100	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
MIA 86, HOU 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.6,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.84,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,1,1,1	94.0%
POR 91, NOK 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.65,0.74,0.74,0.6,0.7,0.62,0.79,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.95,1,1	93.9%