NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	87		Excitement	4.3 [945]		MVP	Michael Curry (DET): +11.2%
Detroit Pistons	93		Comeback	3.1 [511]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (DET): -16.5%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome Moiso	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.02	0.00	6	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Baron Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	13	48%	0.05	3	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Robert Traylor	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	2	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.05	9	61%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	8	60%	-0.00	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Courtney Alexander	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	8	35%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
George Lynch	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	1	50%	0.00	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.04	0.03	10	45%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	-0.17	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	20	42%	-0.07	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.02	0.02	4	137%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.01	13	74%	0.11	3	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	10	55%	0.05	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	68%	0.05	1	-0.02	11	73%	0.01
Zeljko Rebraca	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	83%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	1	80%	0.01	3	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	2	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.19	-0.01	-0.06	6	7%	-0.07	4	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.05	0.01	13	55%	0.02	7	-0.18	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	0.3	27.1	16.3	28.6	2.4	31.3	130.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +46.5%

DET +9.0%

NOH -6.5%

NOH -1.0%

DET +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DET	NBA	NOH	DET	NBA
this game	16.0	15.5	15.5	95.6	101.1	101.6
season	15.9	16.8		101.6	101.7
opponent	15.6	15.6		97.8	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	14.8	15.9	17.6	15.5	16.0
DET	18.6	14.7	13.7	15.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Traylor	16	15	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.20	8	-14	22	15.1	16.2	-1.11	17.4	15.1	2.27
P.J. Brown	46	48	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-5	4	15.6	16.4	-0.79	16.2	14.7	1.44
Jerome Moiso	9	9	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.07	0	-6	6	18.4	15.7	2.74	11.9	15.9	-4.00
Stacey Augmon	37	38	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.25	3	-9	12	15.4	16.4	-0.92	14.6	16.1	-1.52
Baron Davis	74	75	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.15	-2	-4	2	16.3	14.4	1.93	15.8	14.4	1.41
George Lynch	28	27	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-2	-2	16.1	15.9	0.24	16.6	15.0	1.55
David Wesley	66	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.27	-4	-2	-2	15.6	17.0	-1.35	15.9	14.4	1.51
Courtney Alexander	45	45	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.23	-6	0	-6	16.0	16.0	0.04	14.2	16.7	-2.54
Jamal Mashburn	75	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.11	-12	6	-18	16.1	15.2	0.88	14.9	18.2	-3.33
Jamaal Magloire	59	60	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.12	-12	6	-18	16.2	15.6	0.54	16.0	14.5	1.49

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chucky Atkins	87	86	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.30	9	-3	12	15.2	20.2	-4.97	16.1	13.2	2.94
Zeljko Rebraca	25	26	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.04	10	-4	14	16.9	15.0	1.95	16.9	15.6	1.27
Ben Wallace	60	59	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.43	-4	10	-14	16.0	14.5	1.49	15.7	16.6	-0.90
Richard Hamilton	51	51	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.13	6	0	6	15.8	15.1	0.64	16.3	15.6	0.72
Michael Curry	49	47	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.12	5	1	4	15.9	15.1	0.76	16.0	15.9	0.09
Jon Barry	48	47	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.24	0	6	-6	14.6	16.5	-1.83	15.7	16.3	-0.57
Corliss Williamson	40	40	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.15	2	4	-2	15.5	15.5	0.09	15.9	16.0	-0.14
Mehmet Okur	32	32	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.10	10	-4	14	14.5	16.0	-1.49	16.6	15.7	0.90
Clifford Robinson	63	62	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.28	-5	11	-16	15.1	16.4	-1.38	15.6	16.9	-1.30
Tayshaun Prince	5	5	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	9	-12	20.2	15.2	4.97	13.2	16.1	-2.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.77,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.96,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 77, MIN 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
CHI 68, MIL 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.49,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
POR 95, GSW 111	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.24,0.31,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.31,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.7,0.77,0.86,0.81,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%