NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	95		Excitement	6.8 [447]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +28.2%
New Orleans Hornets	100		Comeback	5.8 [469]		LVP	Travis Best (MIA): -15.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.3,0.28	0.11	0.18	0.00	19	62%	0.28	0	0.00	10	80%	0.02
Vladimir Stepania	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	6	57%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Eddie House	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	4	58%	0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Brian Grant	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	8	55%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Malik Allen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	12	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.03	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	6	25%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.15	-0.06	-0.08	0.00	11	43%	-0.11	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.05
Travis Best	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.01	7	14%	-0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.03,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.2	0.20	-0.01	0.18	-0.02	24	56%	0.27	3	-0.07	14	71%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	7	78%	0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
David Wesley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.01	11	70%	0.15	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.09	-0.00	17	41%	0.07	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
George Lynch	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Moiso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	46%	0.00	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.01	-0.00	10	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	-103.0	2.4	26.4	15.4	30.9	0.3	36.1	8.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +36.7%

NOH +7.7%

MIA -13.3%

NOH +15.0%

NOH +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NOH	NBA	MIA	NOH	NBA
this game	15.6	17.7	15.5	109.2	116.3	101.6
season	16.3	15.9		94.6	101.6
opponent	15.6	15.9		99.6	100.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.2	13.7	15.3	17.8	15.6
NOH	16.5	17.7	18.3	18.2	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie House	13	13	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.03	2	-7	9	12.6	16.2	-3.56	15.3	18.1	-2.77
Sean Marks	27	26	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-7	9	13.6	16.6	-2.97	18.7	17.2	1.42
Vladimir Stepania	26	25	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.16	3	-8	11	15.3	15.8	-0.53	18.5	17.3	1.21
Mike James	34	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.17	0	-5	5	14.8	16.2	-1.39	19.7	16.4	3.27
Rasual Butler	34	35	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-4	3	15.4	15.8	-0.33	17.3	17.9	-0.68
Caron Butler	68	66	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.23	0	-5	5	15.4	16.5	-1.13	18.3	15.5	2.75
Brian Grant	55	55	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.15	-9	4	-13	16.1	14.8	1.36	17.5	17.9	-0.33
Malik Allen	65	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.29	-5	0	-5	16.4	13.3	3.17	17.3	18.8	-1.52
Travis Best	41	42	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.22	-8	3	-11	17.0	14.5	2.47	16.4	18.8	-2.41
Eddie Jones	72	71	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.32	-9	4	-13	16.0	14.1	1.91	17.3	19.5	-2.27

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	77	78	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.34	9	-4	13	17.3	20.6	-3.23	16.2	11.2	4.93
David Wesley	55	57	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.21	11	-6	17	17.6	17.7	-0.07	15.8	15.4	0.42
Jamal Mashburn	80	81	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.36	6	-1	7	17.5	19.7	-2.15	15.9	12.7	3.20
George Lynch	20	20	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.09	9	-4	13	16.7	18.0	-1.25	16.0	15.5	0.46
Jamaal Magloire	67	70	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.28	-1	6	-7	17.6	18.1	-0.50	16.0	14.2	1.75
Robert Traylor	18	16	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	0	5	19.0	17.3	1.69	15.1	15.8	-0.71
Courtney Alexander	44	43	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.27	-7	12	-19	17.8	17.5	0.27	14.5	16.8	-2.28
P.J. Brown	58	59	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.11	-4	9	-13	18.1	16.9	1.19	15.4	16.2	-0.89
Jerome Moiso	11	11	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	8	-11	18.9	17.5	1.43	13.7	15.9	-2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.33,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.86,0.85,0.92,0.81,0.83,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 95, CHA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.29,0.23,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.48,0.53,0.7,0.62,0.75,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.91,0.87,0.89,0.96,0.94,0.58,1	93.0%
OKC 90, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.51,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.74,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.85,0.68,0.92,1	92.7%
CLE 86, WAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.54,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.88,0.94,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.99,1,1,1	92.5%