NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	4.1 [976]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +11.9%
Orlando Magic	89		Comeback	1.6 [319]		LVP	Kendall Gill (MIA): -9.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.03	-0.01	14	69%	0.18	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Mike James	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	4	125%	0.08	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	7	71%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	14	53%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	43%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vladimir Stepania	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01	0.07	-0.01	0.06	7	80%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00
Malik Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	16	44%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.00	-0.02	8	25%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.11	-0.00	0.07	14	68%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Jeryl Sasser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	9	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	10	59%	0.04	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	-0.02	-0.05	22	44%	-0.03	4	-0.06	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	26.2	15.8	24.8	1.8	28.2	123.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +46.3%

ORL -6.3%

MIA +6.4%

MIA +1.8%

MIA +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	16.1	14.4	15.6	109.6	93.7	102.3
season	16.5	14.6		96.6	104.6
opponent	15.8	15.8		103.3	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.2	16.0	17.0	17.1	16.1
ORL	14.6	16.7	13.7	12.9	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	61	60	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.02	17	-3	20	16.1	15.9	0.19	14.8	13.7	1.07
Malik Allen	82	82	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.10	13	1	12	16.4	14.1	2.27	14.7	12.4	2.36
Eddie Jones	67	68	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.17	8	6	2	16.4	15.2	1.18	14.7	13.8	0.85
Kendall Gill	58	59	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.01	9	5	4	16.4	15.5	0.96	14.4	14.4	0.05
Rod Strickland	36	36	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.01	9	5	4	15.9	16.2	-0.28	15.7	13.7	2.01
Anthony Carter	52	52	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.02	7	7	0	15.6	16.6	-0.96	14.0	14.9	-0.89
Eddie House	21	23	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.03	7	7	0	15.4	16.3	-0.88	15.2	14.2	0.99
Mike James	31	31	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.07	3	11	-8	16.5	15.8	0.72	13.2	15.0	-1.82
Sean Marks	29	29	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	14	-14	14.7	16.7	-1.99	12.8	15.1	-2.34
Vladimir Stepania	33	35	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.07	-3	17	-20	15.9	16.1	-0.19	13.7	14.8	-1.07

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeryl Sasser	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	8.2	14.8	-6.68	17.7	16.0	1.71
Steven Hunter	24	23	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-14	14	11.7	15.3	-3.63	15.3	16.3	-0.95
Andrew DeClercq	28	27	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-12	10	16.1	13.7	2.39	16.6	15.9	0.69
Jud Buechler	31	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-9	4	14.4	14.4	-0.05	16.0	16.1	-0.14
Darrell Armstrong	58	57	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.16	-2	-12	10	13.9	15.2	-1.21	16.3	15.7	0.60
Monty Williams	65	67	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.19	-2	-12	10	15.1	12.9	2.17	16.3	15.6	0.66
Pat Garrity	67	66	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-4	-6	14.2	14.9	-0.67	15.9	16.4	-0.42
Jaren Jackson	34	32	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.20	-22	8	-30	13.9	14.7	-0.88	14.6	16.8	-2.18
Horace Grant	70	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.13	-12	-2	-10	15.4	11.7	3.72	16.3	15.3	0.97
Troy Hudson	92	90	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.06	-15	1	-16	14.5	13.3	1.12	16.2	14.0	2.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.21,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 131, DEN 117	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
MIN 104, NOH 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.17,0.16,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%
DAL 103, POR 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.16,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.22,0.15,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%