NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	105		Excitement	5.9 [632]		MVP	Rodney Rogers (BOS): +25.7%
Indiana Pacers	94		Comeback	24.1 [38]		LVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): -34.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Rogers	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.16	0.11	0.02	6	117%	0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.24,0.24	0.12	0.12	-0.01	7	90%	0.27	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.05
Paul Pierce	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.06	0.02	11	76%	0.17	4	-0.08	16	87%	0.05
Erick Strickland	0.06	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.13	-0.02	0.04	9	85%	0.08	1	-0.01	8	100%	0.02
Vitaly Potapenko	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tony Delk	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	4	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Battie	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	-0.33	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.29,-0.29,-0.34,-0.34,-0.33	-0.23	-0.11	-0.01	19	30%	-0.23	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.01	14	58%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.08	-0.08	-0.01	14	68%	0.10	2	-0.10	10	90%	0.03
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	5	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Ollie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	10	42%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	6	46%	-0.01	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	16	47%	0.04	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.35	-0.08	-0.23	0.03	12	42%	-0.21	3	-0.14	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.8	33.4	15.7	26.2	2.7	33.4	139.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +11.5%

BOS +28.4%

IND -15.7%

BOS +30.0%

IND -4.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	IND	NBA	BOS	IND	NBA
this game	14.2	16.9	15.6	112.9	102.2	102.3
season	15.0	15.3		100.9	101.6
opponent	15.4	15.7		100.9	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.7	15.6	15.2	12.4	14.2
IND	16.3	13.8	20.1	18.1	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Rogers	63	63	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.08	28	-17	45	13.4	15.8	-2.36	18.7	13.2	5.46
Walter McCarty	58	57	0.88	-0.38	1.27	0.06	28	-17	45	13.8	14.9	-1.14	16.4	17.8	-1.33
Erick Strickland	59	59	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.32	13	-2	15	12.9	16.4	-3.53	17.7	15.5	2.23
Antoine Walker	85	84	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.16	14	-3	17	14.2	14.1	0.09	16.3	23.4	-7.04
Paul Pierce	88	87	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.20	11	0	11	14.1	15.6	-1.47	16.9	17.6	-0.69
Vitaly Potapenko	13	13	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.01	0	11	-11	13.0	14.4	-1.40	21.5	16.2	5.35
Tony Delk	34	33	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.14	-2	13	-15	16.4	12.9	3.53	15.5	17.7	-2.23
Tony Battie	30	29	-0.38	0.88	-1.26	0.09	-16	27	-43	16.2	13.3	2.90	15.9	17.4	-1.53
Eric Williams	35	35	-0.49	0.99	-1.48	0.13	-21	32	-53	15.2	13.6	1.64	15.4	17.9	-2.49

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	38	39	0.30	-0.80	1.10	0.04	9	-20	29	17.6	16.5	1.03	14.8	13.7	1.11
Jeff Foster	14	15	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.10	-7	-4	-3	15.6	17.2	-1.54	15.5	13.9	1.58
Kevin Ollie	18	17	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.12	-10	-1	-9	18.4	16.6	1.86	14.8	14.1	0.76
Austin Croshere	40	39	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.15	-11	0	-11	15.6	17.9	-2.29	13.2	14.9	-1.68
Jamaal Tinsley	74	76	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-10	9	16.6	18.4	-1.86	14.1	14.8	-0.76
Jermaine O'Neal	85	85	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-8	5	16.9	17.1	-0.21	14.2	14.5	-0.32
Reggie Miller	75	75	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-5	-1	16.3	19.9	-3.67	13.9	15.5	-1.61
Metta World Peace	65	67	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.29	-9	-2	-7	18.8	12.4	6.37	14.7	13.0	1.62
Jonathan Bender	51	52	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.18	-17	6	-23	16.5	17.5	-0.98	14.0	14.5	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.74,0.69,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.83,0.6,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.09,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 97, NOH 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.87,0.77,0.64,0.46,0.48,0.33,0.28,0.14,0.04,0	93.2%
NOH 76, HOU 73	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.74,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.37,0.1,0,0	92.1%
DET 106, TOR 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.66,0.53,0.31,0.55,0.14,0.15,0	90.6%