NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	112		Excitement	8.7 [138]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DAL): +21.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	106		Comeback	20.5 [71]		LVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): -32.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.05,0.05,0,0.1,0.04,0.27,0.12,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21	0.02	0.18	-0.01	17	47%	0.21	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Nash	0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.22,0.18,0.2	0.02	0.17	-0.01	18	57%	0.25	2	-0.04	8	75%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.07	-0.00	18	45%	0.07	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	7	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03	0.11	-0.12	0.02	28	60%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Avery Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.17	0.04	0.01	7	112%	0.22	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Mason	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	-0.00	13	61%	0.10	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.03
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Mark Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Greg Anthony	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.00	13	46%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.27,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-0.01	-0.02	22	38%	-0.02	6	-0.15	3	100%	0.03
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.08,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.10	-0.23	-0.01	19	50%	-0.15	6	-0.17	6	83%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	20.0	2.8	28.2	19.8	27.5	1.0	30.5	2.6	15.2	147.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	1.7	16.7	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +41.3%

MIL -6.3%

DAL +20.0%

DAL +17.6%

MIL -22.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIL	NBA	DAL	MIL	NBA
this game	15.4	15.6	15.6	109.8	102.9	102.3
season	14.8	15.3		109.6	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.5		105.1	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	15.2	16.2	15.1	15.2	15.0	15.4
MIL	14.8	13.8	17.0	18.2	13.6	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	52	56	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.39	15	-9	24	15.8	14.9	0.91	16.0	15.2	0.79
Steve Nash	86	87	0.79	-0.29	1.08	0.29	17	-11	28	15.1	16.9	-1.82	15.7	15.3	0.37
Raef LaFrentz	86	87	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.43	4	2	2	15.8	13.2	2.63	15.5	16.2	-0.67
Michael Finley	102	103	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	15.4	0.0	15.40	15.6	0.0	15.62
Dirk Nowitzki	92	94	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.36	2	4	-2	15.4	15.3	0.11	16.0	11.6	4.46
Shawn Bradley	10	8	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.05	1	5	-4	14.2	15.5	-1.33	20.2	15.2	5.02
Eduardo Najera	36	35	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.04	-1	7	-8	14.7	15.8	-1.14	15.6	15.6	-0.08
Johnny Newman	8	9	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	12	-18	19.2	15.1	4.18	15.4	15.6	-0.19
Avery Johnson	9	9	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.07	-3	9	-12	13.2	15.6	-2.39	12.7	15.9	-3.24
Greg Buckner	29	27	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	-0.07	-5	11	-16	15.1	15.5	-0.37	13.4	16.4	-3.00

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rafer Alston	30	28	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.16	2	-8	10	13.7	16.4	-2.71	17.2	14.7	2.50
Michael Redd	37	40	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.04	6	-12	18	14.5	16.3	-1.81	17.0	14.4	2.59
Mark Pope	57	57	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.05	0	-6	6	14.3	17.3	-3.00	14.4	16.7	-2.34
Anthony Mason	92	91	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.40	0	-6	6	16.3	10.2	6.09	15.6	14.1	1.47
Darvin Ham	58	58	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.36	-6	0	-6	15.8	15.4	0.47	16.0	14.6	1.43
Tim Thomas	82	80	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.34	-10	4	-14	16.0	14.3	1.62	15.6	14.5	1.09
Glenn Robinson	84	81	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.32	-12	6	-18	16.1	13.3	2.83	14.7	18.2	-3.57
Greg Anthony	75	75	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.45	-10	4	-14	16.1	14.4	1.69	14.5	17.8	-3.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.81,0.7,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.74,0.74,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.87,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.91,0.83,0.6,0.67,0.9,0.78,0.77,0.59,0.54,0.48,0.39,0.22,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 102, CLE 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.75,0.78,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.77,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.73,0.62,0.46,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.15,0	89.8%
HOU 116, NYK 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.75,0.79,0.84,0.84,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.76,0.7,0.65,0.77,0.65,0.7,0.63,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.97,0.89,0.85,0.72,0.81,0.64,0.67,0.92,0.46,0.39,0.22,0.34,0.17,0	89.3%
GSW 110, LAC 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.6,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.84,0.82,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.83,0.69,0.64,0.94,0.91,0.54,0.31,0.46,0.16,0.15,0	89.1%