NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	93		Excitement	4.3 [940]		MVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): +12.7%
Denver Nuggets	78		Comeback	1.1 [1087]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (DEN): -22.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Rose	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	9	78%	0.13	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.09	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	-0.02	0.01	10	87%	0.14	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.01
Antonio Daniels	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	-0.00	-0.03	12	63%	0.07	2	-0.02	6	83%	-0.01
Terry Porter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	6	42%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.00
Danny Ferry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	8	31%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.13	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.02	0.02	8	37%	-0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.01	0.02	9	90%	0.15	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Mengke Bateer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	64%	0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Zendon Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	6	38%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	53%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	20	35%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.15	-0.02	-0.00	10	38%	-0.10	4	-0.08	6	67%	-0.02
Tim Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.17	-0.08	-0.03	9	17%	-0.13	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.5	29.2	15.8	27.1	2.4	26.3	125.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +46.5%

DEN -3.0%

SAS +3.3%

SAS +2.8%

SAS +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DEN	NBA	SAS	DEN	NBA
this game	16.6	16.1	15.6	105.7	88.6	102.3
season	15.8	16.1		104.3	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.7		105.9	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.1	14.5	16.7	17.4	16.6
DEN	15.5	16.8	16.8	15.3	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Ferry	36	36	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.05	13	2	11	15.5	17.4	-1.88	16.7	15.6	1.12
David Robinson	59	60	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.10	17	-2	19	17.4	15.2	2.18	15.5	17.2	-1.70
Terry Porter	30	29	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.11	17	-2	19	14.9	17.6	-2.69	17.1	15.6	1.51
Malik Rose	39	39	0.38	0.12	0.27	-0.03	14	1	13	16.0	17.1	-1.10	16.6	15.7	0.99
Antonio Daniels	55	55	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.03	11	4	7	15.7	18.2	-2.57	15.7	16.8	-1.16
Tim Duncan	64	64	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	12	-9	16.7	16.5	0.24	16.6	14.7	1.84
Steven Smith	39	41	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	11	-7	18.0	15.6	2.40	16.2	16.0	0.20
Tony Parker	58	59	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.17	-2	17	-19	17.6	14.9	2.69	15.6	17.1	-1.51
Bruce Bowen	40	39	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	15	-15	18.0	15.5	2.50	16.2	16.0	0.25
Cherokee Parks	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	16	-17	16.1	16.7	-0.54	13.7	16.3	-2.60
Charles Smith	6	6	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	16	-17	14.3	16.8	-2.47	13.7	16.3	-2.60
Mark Bryant	7	6	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.03	0	15	-15	13.9	16.9	-3.02	15.8	16.1	-0.28

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zendon Hamilton	6	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-16	17	13.7	16.3	-2.60	14.3	16.8	-2.47
Carlos Arroyo	13	14	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-13	11	15.5	16.2	-0.74	15.5	16.9	-1.35
Antonio McDyess	50	49	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-16	17	15.7	16.6	-0.86	17.7	15.3	2.39
Voshon Lenard	50	49	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.08	-2	-13	11	15.9	16.4	-0.53	18.1	14.8	3.22
James Posey	29	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.12	-11	-4	-7	15.4	16.4	-0.96	17.1	16.4	0.64
Tim Hardaway	44	44	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-10	5	15.2	17.0	-1.77	17.2	16.0	1.18
Ryan Bowen	42	42	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.14	-3	-12	9	16.6	15.6	0.96	15.3	17.8	-2.54
Mengke Bateer	16	19	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.08	-11	-4	-7	16.1	16.1	0.04	15.8	16.9	-1.08
Juwan Howard	73	72	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-8	1	16.2	15.6	0.59	16.8	16.1	0.70
George McCloud	54	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-8	-7	-1	16.3	15.7	0.58	15.7	18.2	-2.52
Calbert Cheaney	39	39	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	-1	-13	16.2	16.0	0.25	17.7	15.8	1.94
Donnell Harvey	24	23	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	-1	-13	18.7	15.1	3.66	14.1	17.5	-3.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.17,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.25,0.19,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 116, MIN 106	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.32,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	95.0%
POR 90, MIN 79	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.21,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.2,0.24,0.29,0.21,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.9%
IND 87, NYK 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.28,0.3,0.2,0.27,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.2,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.21,0.18,0.26,0.21,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.08,0.02,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%